41 replies to this topic

[prognosticator]

Yes, you heard it here first. Limit down, circuit breakers, the Fed has lost control, off the lows, PPT, Yen this and Oil that, these are some of the terms we shall hear frequently in the coming two weeks. I love it.

Edited by prognosticator, 30 January 2015 - 08:37 PM.

[pdx5]

I love the big moves and volatility. Nothing more boring than a dead market.

[csw2002]

I love the big moves and volatility. Nothing more boring than a dead market.

I remember you are (were) still bullish and you take only a couple of positions each year. Are you positioned for long or short?

[pdx5]

Long in Reits for dividend play and Healthcare for LT. No individual stocks right now. Building cash positions for really good long opportunities I expect later this year, or next year more likely. Amazingly the best interest I am getting is on US savings bonds bought long ago...4 to 6%...tax deferred. When I bought them, they were the dogs but bought them because of their tax deferred feature. Much more than doubled in value over purchase price at the moment.

Edited by pdx5, 31 January 2015 - 12:06 AM.

[gannman]

if that happens that is the call of the year. .you certainly have my attention

[MDurkin]

Market Model A 200 year commitment to stronger, more orderly financial markets As always, human judgment and accountability shape our state-of-the-art facilities. DMMs, SLPs, and trading floor brokers temper volatility, create orderly opens and closes, improve prices and deepen liquidity. Here are some crucial specifics for brokers: In response to the market breaks in October 1987 and October 1989, the New York Stock Exchange instituted circuit breakers to reduce volatility and promote investor confidence. By implementing a pause in trading, investors are given time to assimilate incoming information and the ability to make informed choices during periods of high market volatility. In 2012, in connection with its approval of the Regulation NMS Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility, commonly referred to as the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan, the SEC approved amendments to Rule 80B (Trading Halts Due to Extraordinary Market Volatility) that revise the halt provisions and circuit-breaker levels. Amended Rule 80B is operative during the pilot period of the Limit Up – Limit Down Plan. Rule 80B Effective April 8, 2013, amended Rule 80B will be in effect. Amended Rule 80B replaces: the DJIA with the S&P 500 as the benchmark index for measuring a market decline; the quarterly calendar recalculation of Rule 80B triggers with daily recalculations; and the 10%, 20%, and 30% market decline percentages with 7%, 13%, and 20% market decline percentages. Amended Rule 80B also modifies: the length of the trading halts associated with each market decline level; and the times when a trading halt may be triggered. Specifically, the circuit-breaker halt for a Level 1 (7%) or Level 2 (13%) decline occurring after 9:30 a.m. Eastern and up to and including 3:25 p.m. Eastern, or in the case of an early scheduled close, 12:25 p.m. Eastern, would result in a trading halt in all stocks for 15 minutes. If the market declined by 20%, triggering a Level 3 circuit-breaker, at any time, trading would be halted for the remainder of the day. A Level 1 or Level 2 halt can only occur once per trading day. For example, if a Level 1 Market Decline was to occur and trading was halted, following the reopening of trading, the NYSE would not halt the market again unless a Level 2 Market Decline was to occur. Likewise, following the reopening of trading after a Level 2 Market Decline, the NYSE would not halt trading again unless a Level 3 Market Decline were to occur, at which point, trading in all stocks would be halted until the primary market opens the next trading day. Rule Filing Approval Order

[fib_1618]

I love it.

So do I!

Fib

[Rogerdodger]

"Limit Down" as in the "Vacuum" that awaits?

In the past, whenever the Confidence index was declining as it has been all year, the big drop didn't come until the last support was taken out.
As Inger commented:
Let me reiterate a potential 'vacuum' awaits that penetration.

[gorydog]

I don't know about that dramatic a plunge. There is some trend line support going back to '08 just below us, as well as some positive divergence on indicators. I think we will need a few retests but I agree a down move seems likely. How about this for specific?

[prognosticator]

if that happens that is the call of the year. .you certainly have my attention

Obviously, with the group of ES buyers located deep in the bowels of the Federal Reserve, it is an extremely unlikely scenario.

It does seem as though markets have come back to life. I mean just take a look at the daily trading range of the Q's over the past two months. Good times for sure.

Seriously, I see nothing but short term negative setups across MOST of the issues I follow. Typically, futures are green on a Monday morning although the time is ripe for this pattern to change.