41 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

The possibility is there...

After the solid breach of 1180 level on RUT yesterday, it is now in potentially very vulnerable position.

Another beach of 1155 area now would likely seal in a larger decline....

only a move back above 1200 now would signal that bears do not have what it takes to do some damage here...

What bears need to see now is follow through that breaks that key support area....


Hourly and Daily RUT looks

Hourly


Daily

[pdx5]

If the market is ready for a big plunge (It is not IMO) it is unlikely to happen during this favorable seasonality period. In the last 50 years since I started watching markets, I can't recall a crash in February. But my memory is no longer my strong point

Edited by pdx5, 31 January 2015 - 01:36 PM.

[K Wave]

If the market is ready for a big plunge (It is not IMO)
it is unlikely to happen during this favorable seasonality period. In the last 50 years since I started watching markets, I can't recall a crash in February. But my memory is no longer my strong point

wow, you have already forgotten about most recent episode in 2009?

Dow fell 2500 points from jan to early march, or about 28%...not sure if that qualifies as crash type action your book though.....
RUT fell 33% in same period from high to low.

or the 2000 points dow fell in same period in 2000....oddly enough while NAZ was blowing off during same period.

SPX also had a pretty brutal feb-march in 2001

and one I remember pretty well from Jan-Feb 1984, which Peter Eliades described at the time as "Urgent Selling"

1978 also brutal start to year

Can I stop now?...

Edited by K Wave, 31 January 2015 - 02:14 PM.

[gannman]

one thing i can say that i see . a lot of stocks have broken thru their 50dma to the downside. the banks to me are done. the oils to me are done and i believe the semis have topped. three important groups to be sure. so fewer and fewer stocks are supporting this market. and the gold stocks are the reverse. many have penetrated thru their 50 dma and some thru their 200 dma to the upside. so the character of the market has changed. monday is going to be interesting for sure i went thru the dow and 14 of the stocks are thru both their 50 and 200dma and pg is sitting right on the 200 dma fwiw

Edited by gannman, 31 January 2015 - 04:13 PM.

[fib_1618]

i believe the semis have topped

As of Friday's close.

Fib

[csw2002]

i believe the semis have topped

As of Friday's close.

Fib

Fib, I know you are still bullish (??) - though you don't show yourself much during big down days (such as Friday). We are pretty much close to support and on the daily SPY chart, it surely looks like 4th attempt to break down the range - triple bottoms are common, but quadruple bottoms - while not not unheard of it - are fairly rare. This does suggest we would break the range to the downside. Love to hear your opinion of the road map from the bull's point of view.

[prognosticator]

i believe the semis have topped

As of Friday's close.

Fib

I agree with this statement from gannman.

I have had a long time target of SOX 670. I do not see a bull flag or pennant, I see minimum downside of maybe 630ish and at that time I would say it is possible that we may see a marginal new high but I highly doubt it. IF it is a flag/pennant, then 800 would be in the cards I guess but not with my dollars.

I would think it unwise to buy semis with longterm money at this point.

Edited by prognosticator, 31 January 2015 - 05:20 PM.

[fib_1618]

though you don't show yourself much during big down days (such as Friday).

Quite a broad brush there as I'm here all the time, but sometimes one gets drowned by the louder voices heard both on down and up days by bears and bulls alike.

High level consolidations are always very challenging for everyone as both sides take their guesses as to their final resolution.

And as many negatives that have been pointed out by the bears over the last week, there are also some very positive technicals that should be respected for their historic track records.

But to answer your question on the fourth challenge, I will leave you with this...is your favorite daily momentum oscillator diverging or leading prices to a probable break of support?

Knowing this and your odds of being correct in your opinion will be more than a 50%.

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib

[prognosticator]

though you don't show yourself much during big down days (such as Friday).

Quite a broad brush there as I'm here all the time, but sometimes one gets drowned by the louder voices heard both on down and up days by bears and bulls alike.

High level consolidations are always very challenging for everyone as both sides take their guesses as to their final resolution.

And as many negatives that have been pointed out by the bears over the last week, there are also some very positive technicals that should be respected for their historic track records.

But to answer your question on the fourth challenge, I will leave you with this...is your favorite daily momentum oscillator diverging or leading prices to a probable break of support?

Knowing this and your odds of being correct in your opinion will be more than a 50%.

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib

Great response. I have followed your BETS indicator since its public inception. I look forward to your update tomorrow as I feel this coming couple of weeks, one way or the other, will be a significant test.

I always question myself before before final positioning, as I did 10 days or so ago before placing my shorts. I makes me uneasy to be on the opposite side of folks with a decent track record but so be it.

Thank you Sir.

Edited by prognosticator, 31 January 2015 - 06:02 PM.

[orange]

though you don't show yourself much during big down days (such as Friday).

Quite a broad brush there as I'm here all the time, but sometimes one gets drowned by the louder voices heard both on down and up days by bears and bulls alike.

High level consolidations are always very challenging for everyone as both sides take their guesses as to their final resolution.

And as many negatives that have been pointed out by the bears over the last week, there are also some very positive technicals that should be respected for their historic track records.

But to answer your question on the fourth challenge, I will leave you with this...is your favorite daily momentum oscillator diverging or leading prices to a probable break of support?

Knowing this and your odds of being correct in your opinion will be more than a 50%.

As far as my being bullish or bearish, whatever the market tells me to be I follow its lead...I'm market neutral every single day.

Fib

Yes. The current situation is challenging. I know because I am doubting my current positions.

Certainly a challenging market at the moment. We are reaching the end the Apex of any triangle you can draw. My guess is if we do break in a direction is that it won't be a strong move. (Yes, I know one side is going to take control )

Friday was either the bottom, or the start a decline. I really hope we gap up Monday morning.

Edited by orange, 31 January 2015 - 06:05 PM.