Jump to content



Photo

Limit down Monday.............


  • Please log in to reply
41 replies to this topic

#41 Gary Smith

Gary Smith

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 887 posts

Posted 02 February 2015 - 02:37 PM

This board has got the worst reputation for calling crashes. 99 out of 100 times, it's wrong - 1% odds. It's so bad, that it's like a weatherman calling a snowstorm in the middle of a warm sunny summer day. Yes, the 1% odds will also come true someday.

Crashes happen when nobody forecasts it, nobody expects it. Just like what happened to the Swiss Franc couple of weeks back. I have learn't over the years, these crash calls have no basis in TA or FA, but are mere emotional outbursts when traders sense uncertainty and fear.

Price declines brings out the primal fears in humans. Fear starts manifesting in various ways. Remember the Ebola scare on this board when we were making the Oct lows. The scare becomes so intense that even the die hard bulls disappear. When the markets recovers and starts making new recovery highs, the fear dissipate, the bears hide in shame and the bulls come out of the woodwork. Seen this play out over and over again.

But who wins in all this madness ? - Somebody who can hold their head above shoulders, ignore all the noise, pull the trigger and have their stops in place. It's easy to get scared. That's what separates the men from the boys.



Great post!!

#42 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 02 February 2015 - 03:24 PM

That's what separates the men from the boys.


Perhaps professionals from rookies. If you don't know what you are doing, you don't just become a boy, you become the patsy! :P

Actually those who pull the trigger based on their testosterone levels will probably lose more money than those who are a bit more prudent and diligent.

You have to step in when it is time, but then again, you have to know what you are doing, otherwise it would be gambling, isn't it?