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Coming week: Last chance for a pullback?


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#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

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Posted 21 February 2015 - 03:14 PM

Maybe the market needs to dispel some of the bullishness?

Bulls a snortin!
AAII is the highest it's been since the December top:

TPS:02/27/15 49 v 32 = 60
NAAIM: 02/18/15 87.81
AAII 2/18/2015) = 72 %
TPS:02/20/15 55 v 28 = 66

December:
TPS: 01/09/15 67%
NAAIM: 12/31/14 95.86
AAII (as of 12/31/2014) 73%


See Mike Burk:

The negatives
The market is overbought. All of the major indices are up around 6% so far this month and many of them have been up for 8 consecutive days.
Seasonality for the coming week has been negative.
The positives
New highs have been adequate, but unimpressive while new lows have been minimal.

Average returns for the coming week have been modestly negative by all measures.
After a hiccup in January the market has been following the seasonal pattern for the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle pretty closely.
That pattern calls for a little consolidation prior to a very strong March.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 February 2015 - 03:19 PM.