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Technical Watch Weekly Breadth Data - 3/27/15


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#1 fib_1618

fib_1618

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Posted 08 April 2015 - 08:06 AM

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Weekly Breadth Data, Week Ending March 27, 2015

With not enough follow through by the buyers on Monday, the market took another trip and stumble mid week as the major market indices finished down an average of 2.12% from last Friday's settlement keeping many of the large cap composite indexes locked in their multi month trading ranges, while the pullback allowed the NASDAQ, Mid Caps and Small Caps the opportunity to continue their ongoing bottoms above bottoms pattern structures.

Looking at the breadth charts array for this week shows that the NYSE Composite, NYSE Common Only and NYSE REIT advance/decline lines all moved to new all time highs on Monday before pulling back to or toward their rising trendlines going back to October of last year. In the interest rate sensitive derivatives, the NYSE Bond CEF (-20) and Specialty CEF (-314) advance/decline lines remain within striking distance of their all time highs, while the NYSE Specialty advance/decline line settled at new historic levels for the 14th time in the last 15 Friday's. As long as these money flow configurations are able to be maintained, this would highly suggest that there is more than ample amounts of liquidity to cushion any short term hiccups that may be thrown at the markets, while keeping positive the path of least resistance.

Over in the internationals, both the Aussie and FTSE advance/decline lines continue to show trending structures to the upside while the DAX advance/decline line has finally broken its accelerated structure of rising bottoms suggesting the beginning of a pause to refresh. The BSE advance/decline line, however, is anything but constructive as cumulative money flow continues to be highly negative suggesting that emerging markets remain a problem in the greater global economic climate. With the DAX breaking trend this week, let's continue to keep a watchful eye for any further negative tremors that may develop with the BSE weakness while remaining on a full defensive posture toward India's equity markets in general.

Although the spot price of gold and silver continued to climb higher this week, the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines actually moved lower with the PM's money flow line actually moving to lower lows. This kind of non confirmation between breadth and price creates an internal vacuum to where prices tend to play catch up to the direction of money flow and short term price collapses are the usual result. Because of this, a continuation of a full defensive posture is not only warranted but highly preferred at this time in this asset class.

So with the BETS moving back into neutral territory with a +10 reading, and several breadth McClellan Oscillator readings showing wash out resets in their patterns on Wednesday, it would appear that the week ahead will remain that of being highly volatile and choppy moving into the upcoming Good Friday closing as the buyers try again to construct another internal base from where prices can eventually build on in an effort to move up and out of our current indecision doldrums.

Have a great trading week!

US Equity Markets:

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US Interest Rates:

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US Real Estate:

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Precious Metals:

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Australia:

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England:

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Germany:

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India:

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Technical Watch's Breadth Data Review includes a weekend recap of hard to find breadth measurements from the New York Composite Index, the London exchange (FTSE), the Frankfurt exchange (DAX), Sydney's All Ordinaries index, and India's Bombay exchange (BSE). Charts are provided with a market narrative by Dave Breslaw and are annotated for additional clarity and suggested positioning. Also included with this service are occasional special posts of longer term data charts to provide a comparable historical context of how internal action of the markets (money flow) can have a direct effect on the direction of price itself. This service works hand in hand with the Chatting the Market subscription service as it provides additional global money flow insights found nowhere else on the internet. More information on subscribing to either or both services can be found by clicking here.

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