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Technical Watch Weekly Breadth Data - 4/24/15


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#1 fib_1618

fib_1618

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Posted 08 May 2015 - 08:15 AM

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Weekly Breadth Data, Week Ending April 24, 2015

It was quite an historic week for the U.S. markets as the broadest baskets of price indicators, the New York Composite, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000, all closed on Friday at new all time highs....the NASDAQ finishing a journey that took a little more than 15 years in getting this accomplished. It was also a good week for the primary gauge of U.S. stock market activity, the S&P 500, as it also closed at new all time highs on a daily, weekly and monthly time scale as well. On a combined percentage basis then, the market was up an average 1.72%, week over week, with the NASDAQ 100 leading the way higher with a gain of 4.25% and leaving it just 188 points (4%) away from its all time closing highs made on March 27, 2000.

Looking over our breadth charts array for this week shows that the broadest indicator of market liquidity, the NYSE Composite advance/decline line, closed at new all time highs on Friday along with the NYSE Preferred and NYSE Specialty CEF advance/decline lines. In the other breadth derivatives, the NYSE Common Only advance/decline line also saw new all time highs on Thursday, while the NYSE Bond CEF advance/decline line was able to see new highs on Tuesday and leaving it only 14 net advancing issues from these same historic levels. Even the NYSE REIT advance/decline line had a good week as it now rests some 212 net advancing issues from making new historic highs unanimous. So not only did the buyers hold their own against the sellers ambush of April 17th, but they were also able overwhelm their foe to move forward with a resounding "hurrah!"

The international markets saw mixed results last week as the Aussie and FTSE advance/decline lines continued to maintain their technical buoyancy, while the DAX advance/decline line followed through on last week's break of its accelerated trendline and has etched out a top beneath a top formation by the narrowest of margins. Over in India, the BSE advance/decline line continues to maintain a bearish liquidity structure as it has now completed an obligatory technical snapback to what was previous support and is now once again moving to the downside along with the BSE 500 showing a break below its rising bottoms line in this process. Because of this then, lets upgrade our "defensive posture" toward this market into "full bear mode" where any snapback to the rising bottoms line shown on the BSE 500 chart providing a low risk opportunity to enter short positions with a stop if and when the BSE advance/decline line is able to move back above the highs that were made on April 13th.

Looking at the precious metals complex and we see that the price of gold (-1.99%) and silver (-3.26%) finally succumbed to the weight of money that has been moving out of this sector over the last 2 months. However, when we look at the data on closer examination, we find that the Precious Metals and XAU advance/decline lines barely budged and, in fact, pretty much ended up from where they started with Monday's opening bell. Given the fact that we didn't see additional selling into these declines in the cash market can indicate that all of the willing and unwilling sellers might be out of the market as long as this divergence is able to be maintained. Because of this, a bottom in prices might be closer than we think once our technical price to breadth reset has been completed. Stay tuned.

So, it was an exceptional week for the bulls as the sell off on April OPEX pretty much flushed out a lot of indecisive weak hands, and the buyers took full advantage of this and once again moved prices to higher highs. With the BETS indicator (see the post on this weeks Cumulative Charts) also gaining another 10 points (+50) and pushing our multi week accumulation signal to that of a "bullish bias", it would seem that we'll continue to see the path of least resistance will remain with the buyers for the next couple of weeks. However, any increase in this current buying (thrust) dynamic will then set the tone for the month of May in general, while extending this bullish timeline out into the early June period.

Have a great trading week!

US Equity Markets:

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US Interest Rates:

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US Real Estate:

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Precious Metals:

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Australia:

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England:

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Germany:

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India:

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Technical Watch's Breadth Data Review includes a weekend recap of hard to find breadth measurements from the New York Composite Index, the London exchange (FTSE), the Frankfurt exchange (DAX), the Sydney exchange (AORD), and India's Bombay exchange (BSE). Charts are provided with a market narrative by Dave Breslaw and are annotated for additional clarity and suggested positioning. Also included with this service are occasional special posts of longer term data charts to provide a comparable historical context of how internal action of the markets (money flow) can have a direct effect on the direction of price itself. This service works hand in hand with the Chatting the Market subscription service as it provides additional global money flow insights found nowhere else on the internet. More information on subscribing to either or both services can be found by clicking here.

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