BTW...did you loose faith in TA ?
You can't have "faith" in probabilities. Trading is not about TA, it's about risk management.
Well, if you toss a coin four or five times at all, it may happen that the coin falls on the same side all the times. But if you toss the coin one thousand times what you will see is a 50% on a side and the remaining 50% on the other side. That's why I said the experiment will end up ''flat''. Trading success would result flat as well and such a thing to tell the truth, would be an achievement for most traders that I know who tend to loose money in the long term. This flat result doesn' t change even in a large time interval such as 50 years or more because you will have a flat result in the up years (which will be on the whole many more...as the bull lasts much longer than the bear) and flat result in the down years.....and flat result in sideways years too. In a time interval of 50 years or more another strategy that one might consider would be going each day, just long on an index, profiting from the fact that in the long term bullish years are many more than the bearish ones. But really such a strategy is madness because implementing it at the start of a bear market such as the one which we are close to in my opinion, would mean being broken in few days and much before the next bull starts. The only strategy I know (which I apply to stocks but I could apply to whatever I wanted to trade) is this one : let's suppose I want to enter short on a stock....the first thing to look at is if possibly the stock has a wall of resistances just above its head and a long way to fall before finding the next support. This I call risk management. It's not enough though. I need to have a bearish pattern on he stock and the indicators confirming the bearish pattern. This is the part that I call probability because there's no pattern or indicator that is right 100% of times. Well, such a strategy works just in the right hands obviously......because trading is a RISKY BUSINESS and it's not for all (95% of traders loose and just 5% win). That's all.
There are obviously other winning strategies....such as those implemented by the guys who hedge......but I never tried that.
Edited by andr99, 22 May 2015 - 02:28 AM.