42 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

And, it's DOWN for Tuesday, 5/26/15. Accuracy: 50% (2 for 4)

https://www.random.o...usd.0100c-adams

[TechMan]

We may see a ST "long squeeze" on Tuesday and/or Wednesday due to volume/volatility compression along with waning momentum.

Except for AAPL, the one that really matters, some of the top components of QQQ has exhibited similar CLV Index pattern (red curve) as FB, which should continue its downturn after this. But, things could always change in a hurry.

Edited by TechMan, 22 May 2015 - 08:56 PM.

[arbman]

I respectfully disagree, trading is about odds AND risk management.

"Odds" are optical illusions. Risk is the only real hing you have control over.

Perhaps your analysis is an optical illusion, but my analysis consistently produces highly accurate results, I have been posting here for years too...

There is no denying about risk management, but without the correct analysis you won't get very far...

[TechMan]

I respectfully disagree, trading is about odds AND risk management.

"Odds" are optical illusions. Risk is the only real hing you have control over.

Perhaps your analysis is an optical illusion, but my analysis consistently produces highly accurate results, I have been posting here for years too...

There is no denying about risk management, but without the correct analysis you won't get very far...

Really? You sure you want to do this?

Yes, I'd admit that my analyses have turned out to be nothing but "optical illusions" at times just like everyone else.

You're just an analyst. You've rarely, if ever, posted any "real time" trades with specific entries, stops, exits, risk/rewards. And, your analyses over the years have been wrong more often than not. I've read them, unfortunately.

[arbman]

I respectfully disagree, trading is about odds AND risk management.

"Odds" are optical illusions. Risk is the only real hing you have control over.

Perhaps your analysis is an optical illusion, but my analysis consistently produces highly accurate results, I have been posting here for years too...

There is no denying about risk management, but without the correct analysis you won't get very far...

Really? You sure you want to do this?

Yes, I'd admit that my analyses have turned out to be nothing but "optical illusions" at times just like everyone else.

You're just an analyst. You've rarely, if ever, posted any "real time" trades with specific entries, stops, exits, risk/rewards. And, your analyses over the years have been wrong more often than not. I've read them, unfortunately.

OK.

I manage portfolios, it is impossible to post a binary buy or sell trade for me here because I have to cover the uncertainty and make consistent returns. If there is too much uncertainty, I don't try to predict it at all, especially not daily. My trades are structured trades and I have emailed you in the past about what they look like with an example...

My analysis have not been wrong more often unless you are trying to daytrade my analysis and I can guarantee you that it will be wrong for daytrading. For swing trading, I do not think it was wrong more often than not because I put my money where my mouth is, especially for the big moves I made money for my clients...

Best of luck.

[TechMan]

I respectfully disagree, trading is about odds AND risk management.

"Odds" are optical illusions. Risk is the only real hing you have control over.

Perhaps your analysis is an optical illusion, but my analysis consistently produces highly accurate results, I have been posting here for years too...

There is no denying about risk management, but without the correct analysis you won't get very far...

Really? You sure you want to do this?

Yes, I'd admit that my analyses have turned out to be nothing but "optical illusions" at times just like everyone else.

You're just an analyst. You've rarely, if ever, posted any "real time" trades with specific entries, stops, exits, risk/rewards. And, your analyses over the years have been wrong more often than not. I've read them, unfortunately.

OK.

I manage portfolios, it is impossible to post a binary buy or sell trade for me here because I have to cover the uncertainty and make consistent returns. If there is too much uncertainty, I don't try to predict it at all, especially not daily. My trades are structured trades and I have emailed you in the past about what they look like with an example...

My analysis have not been wrong more often unless you are trying to daytrade my analysis and I can guarantee you that it will be wrong for daytrading. For swing trading, I do not think it was wrong more often than not because I put my money where my mouth is, especially for the big moves I made money for my clients...

Best of luck.

Providing audited income statements or tax returns of at least the past 3 years is the only way to know whether someone's putting his money where his mouth is. Everything else is either sales pitch or just entertainment on social media.

[Rogerdodger]

There are trends in markets which have a fundamental basis, or they can become self fulfilling and exceed their fundamental basis.
Coin tossing may appear to have a trend, but it is only mere chance and coincidence.

This coin toss system can be played out in less than an hour at a casino roulette wheel.
Bet on either red/black or even/odd and your odds are 50/50...until it lands on the green 0/00. (Broker commission)
You will leave broke.

Or try the Martingale system. Bet $1.
If you win, take the profit, if you lose, double your next bet.
Within an hour your $100 stack of $1 chips will be gone simply by a small series of 7 wrong bets.

$1
$2
$4
$8
$16
$32
$37 (That's all that's left of your original $100)

What are the odds of this happening?

Based on these 3 photos the "trend" is even numbers with red/black evenly divided...for now.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 May 2015 - 01:15 PM.

[risk_management]

There are trends in markets which have a fundamental basis, or they can become self fulfilling and exceed their fundamental basis.
Coin tossing may appear to have a trend, but it is only mere chance and coincidence.

This coin toss system can be played out in less than an hour at a casino roulette wheel.
Bet on either red/black or even/odd and your odds are 50/50...until it lands on the green 0/00. (Broker commission)
You will leave broke.

Or try the Martingale system. Bet $1.
If you win, take the profit, if you lose, double your next bet.
Within an hour your $100 stack of $1 chips will be gone simply by a small series of 7 wrong bets.

$1
$2
$4
$8
$16
$32
$37 (That's all that's left of your original $100)

What are the odds of this happening?

Randomness tends to trend far more than we think it does.

[Rogerdodger]

Then there is this guy: The father of behavioral economics explains why you can't predict the market

I would like to think of trading as being in a sail boat. It's better to go with the prevailing wind, but with an eye on the weather and the rocks below.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 May 2015 - 01:26 PM.

[TechMan]

Or try the Martingale system.

The Gambler’s Fallacy

I used to think after a streak of red, the "odds" would be higher for the next spin to land on black. The fact is each spin of the roulette wheel is independent, not dissimilar to some VST market conditions.