For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (5/20/04) at 1089.18. Stop hit on (7/8/04) at 1111 for gain of 2%.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Sold SPX (5/27/04) at 1121.26 for a profit of 2.19%. Long SPX on 5/12 at 1097.26.
What to expect now: (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com) a current graph of the "S&P 400 mid cap" is included on the third page of this report. We keep bring this graph up because it identifies the bullish nature of the S&P's for the longer-term picture. The "S&P 600 small cap" has a similar bullish picture. What is importantly bullish here on the S&P 400 is that it "Jumped" above the previous highs of 2000, 2001 and 2002 at the 550 level with a "Sign of Strength" and confirms the breakout to the upside. The breakout area at the 550 level should now act as support to any pull back and the place to "buy the Market" providing the 550 level test has lighter volume. We use sentiment form "WhisperNumber.com" (and excellent near real-time sentiment report) and reported yesterday that sentiment is now approaching the bottoming level of 25% bulls or less with a current reading of 32.3%. Back at the January high, "WhisperNumber.com" came in at 68.9% bulls and predicted a top and right on the money. The included graph of the S&P 400 is of a weekly time frame and the pull back to the 550 level may take several more weeks to be reached. In that time frame the Sentiment to the 25% bulls or less may be reached and would help to confirm the bottom. We will most likely turn 100% intermediate term bullish on the S&P near the 550 range on the S&P's 400. That would equate to the 1060 are on the S&P 500. Between now and then patience will be needed. We may find a couple short term trades on the S&P between now and then. When it becomes time to buy at the major low, the masses will be extremely bearish and we will be on the other side of the fence.
Nasdaq Composite:
The Nasdaq is the weaker of the two, between the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq may break the May 17 low near the 1867 level and head down to 1825 level and the 1825 level may be the place to look for an intermediate term bottom. The McClellan Oscillator has so far been putting in a higher low compared to the Mid May low and a positive divergence. If this positive divergence keeps in place as the Nasdaq breaks below the previous low mid May low of 1867, a bullish signal would get triggered.
GOLD Market:
We have included the graph of the "Dow Jones US Precious Metals Index" (courtesy of "www.decisionpoint.com").
The graph shows the confirmed "Jumped the Creek" at the 70, which is also the "Neck line" of a "Head and Shoulders" Bottom" and confirms the longer term bullish picture. Towards the extreme right on the graph we have drawn a blue line both on the Volume and on price. This pattern we are pointing out here is a possible "Rising Wedge" that has a downside target back to 70 again. This does not change the bigger bullish picture but it does point out a possible pull back near term to 70 on this index. Next rise after this potential pull back should see a "Sign of Strength".
Long BGO at an average of 3.06. BGO has support at 2.46. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ has support near the 2.80 range. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. Long PMU at average 1.12 and the PMO has turned up. Support on PMU comes in at .58 and bounce off that support and implies a bottom was seen in this issue.
The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows has occurred. Today's close came in at -73 and has turned the Summation index and a short term bearish sign.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .43. This indicator is neutral.
“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 6.36. This indicator is bullish.
Conclusion: Neutral for the moment.
Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish but still neutral. May get longer term buy signal near 1060 on S&P
Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com
Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.
Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.
In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.
Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.
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