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#1 jdjimenez

jdjimenez

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Posted 25 August 2015 - 04:14 AM

Subject: #2015 - 132 Charles Nenner Research Center - Morning Update and Wave Analysis - August 24, 2015 Monday
#2015 – 130 Charles Nenner Research Center - Morning Update and Wave Analysis – August 21, 2015 Friday
S&P/Nasdaq – Futures Prices
Dow/TSX/Europe – Cash Prices
Currencies – Cash Prices
We accidentally left out the attached chart and commentary on the S&P 500 Index in yesterday’s research
S&P 500 – Quarterly – August 24, 2015 Monday
Let’s take a look at this chart in to answer questions how we calculated the high of 2128 for the S&P
From the 2009 low, we can count three Waves up
Wave 3 is an exact 1.618 times Wave 1 retracement, which gives us the upside price target
If this is correct, we could see a new Wave 5 up after this decline being Wave 4
This makes sense in accordance with cycles, which project the start of the big crash late 2017, lasting through 2020
However, with the Elliott Wave analysis, there is another count possible
This means that we could count the up move as an ABC move - which means we already saw the high
For new subscribers, we are still expecting to see Dow Jones reach 5000 by 2020
In any case, we will let cycles make the decision for us going forward
S&P/Nasdaq (SEP)
The sell signal continues in the Indices, and daily cycles are still down for another week
Our downside targets were reached
The VIX reached our targets of 25 and higher
The question is: can we go lower?
Based on our overall technical model that is still very negative, we continue to be bearish, and we think that more correction is to follow
We calculated a next downside target for the S&P of 1923
A good close below that can bring the S&P down to 1760
A move like that will coincide with a projected VIX of 39 as shown in yesterday’s research
VIX (Cash)
The VIX tested the highs and reached our upside target
Daily cycles still project a high by the end of the week
However, a close below 20.70 gives a first indication that we have seen a short term high
S&P/TSX (Canada)
The TSX continues on a sell signal given around 14,700
Although no longer supported by cycles, we warned that the overall technical model was signalling weakness
In order for the TSX to now give a buy signal, we need a close above 13,680
DAX/FTSE 100/AEX (Europe)
European markets are correcting
However, although the weekly cycles are still down, some short term cycles are nearing their projected cycle low by the end of August
However, in order to see more than a bounce - and to cancel the sell signal short term - we will need a close for the DAX above 10,498, a close for the FTSE above 6322, and a close for the AEX above 454
Gold (DEC)
Gold needs a close above 1168 to move higher
Although short term cycles are still not supportive, they are approaching a low
For now, it seems that the cycle low came in early
The buy signal given at 1105 continues, as long as there is no close below 1116
Silver (SEP)
In order for Silver to cancel its sell signal, we still need a close above 15.60
Short term cycles project a low by the end of this week
Copper
Copper reached our downside price target of 2.28
Crude (OCT)
Today, we urge investors who sold Crude around 97 when we gave a long term sell signal to close any short positions, since Crude is very close to our downside price target of 38
Based on daily cycles that already bottomed, we are still looking for a bounce, but a close above 42.45 is needed for a buy signal
Nat Gas (OCT)
Nat Gas is struggling to hold above our level of 2.67
A close below cancels the buy signal short term, since the next short term cycle low is projected again by the end of this week
US Bonds (SEP)
Although short term Bond cycles topped, the buy signal was not cancelled
Traders who are long should keep a tight stop, or take some profit off the table
Closes below US 30 Year 158.22, US 10 Year 127.14, and TLT 123.80 cancel the buy signals for longs
Bunds (SEP)
Bunds continue on a buy signal, as long as there is no close below 154.15
Euro
The Euro never cancelled its buy signal, and although not supported by the daily cycles, it moved higher,
Traders were playing the Euro carry trade and continue should now close positions
We now have a first upside target of 115.40, as long as there is no close below 112.50
A few weeks ago, we showed that weekly EUR/USD cycles are up
We could now see the EUR/USD trade as high as 119 EUR/USD
Australian Dollar
We are still looking for a bounce in the Aussie
The buy signal continues, as long as there is no close below 71.40 AUD/USD
Daily cycles top again by the end of this week
Canadian Dollar
The Dollar/Canadian can still reach 132.85 USD/CAD
Short term cycles topped
In order to cancel the buy signal, we still need a close below 129.50 USD/CAD
Yen
daily cycles are close to a cycle top, and cancelled the sell signal in the Yen versus the US Dollar
A close below 121.40 USD/JPY is needed to see a first move towards 117.35 USD/JPY
Euro/Yen
Cycles project a higher Euro/Yen into early SEP
We still expect to reach 142 EUR/JPY, as long as there is no close below 136 EUR/JPY
#2015 – 132 Charles Nenner Research Center - Morning Update and Wave Analysis – August 24, 2015 Monday
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#2015 – 131 Charles Nenner Research Centre - Summary of Prior Forecasts and 9 New Forecasts – August 23, 2015 Sunday
PART 1
We welcome the many new subscribers to our work
Therefore, in order to keep the new subscribers up to date and paint the broad picture, as well as provide a review for our valued current subscribers, we would like to revisit some prior research
In PART 1 of today’s research, we show our appearance on CNBC in late 2014, when we mentioned that we did not expect the S&P to see more than 5% or so higher for a long time
It is interesting to see from that time until now, in 2015, the trading range has been around 6%, among the lowest that we have seen
The 5% was based on a combination of our profit models and the liquidity in the markets
In our opinion, only the liquidity held up the market s , since our model was projecting less growth
As mentioned also, P/E ratio, Price to Cash ratio, Price to Book ratio, and emerging markets looked bad
On top of this, the long term cycle had topped
Essentially, other than a few buy signals, these analyses kept us out of the market, since we could not come up with a reason to be long
It was a boring year
Under cover of the indices holding up, several stocks lost a lot of value
An example is the SOX, which lost around 20% since the cycle top
Our opinion is unchanged
World deflation will lead to poor profits and liquidity slowly leaving the markets
For now, there is no reason to be long
#2015 - 072 Charles Nenner Research Center - Morning Update - May 7, 2015 Thursday - S&P Wedge Pattern
cid:image006.jpg@01D0DDC3.538B6570
This quarterly chart of the S&P shows a rising wedge
A downside break is considered very negative
However, there has to be a quarterly close below the line for that to happen, which is the end of JUN
#2015 – 084 Charles Nenner Research Center - Summary of 19 Forecasts – May 31, 2015 Sunday
cid:image003.jpg@01D0DDC3.46772900
The Dow Jones is trading around the same levels where it was trading a few months ago
We still feel that the market is too expensive when looking at the following ratios: price to cash, price to book value, and price to earnings (P/E)
In addition, the market looks overvalued if we look at the Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) which we use as a long-term indicator
Although there is a short term low around JUN 10, cycles still look toppy
The S&P refuses to close above our upside price target
We are watching the quarterly rising wedge
#2015 – 092 Charles Nenner Research Center - Summary of 15 Forecasts – June 14, 2015 Sunday
cid:image004.jpg@01D0DDC3.46772900
The S&P closed below the monthly support-line, which is a reason to stand aside
Our system does not show growth for most S&P stocks
The US Dollar is a problem
In addition, as we recently said, price to earnings and price to cash flow ratios are quite high
We mentioned on Sept 30, 2014 on CNBC that the S&P – which was trading then at today’s current level – would have a limited long term upside of 5%
Please see the attached link for the mentioned interview on CNBC:
http://video.cnbc.co...ideo=3000315932
cid:image005.jpg@01D0DDC3.46772900
We again show the S&P in this big rising wedge pattern
It shows why we see trouble at the top, since the market runs into the trend-line
More important is still the other trend-line, since a quarterly close below it line will increase risk
#2015 – 127 Charles Nenner Research Center - Morning Update – Aug 17, 2015 Monday
The S&P is again trading around the same levels where it was 6 months ago
We had been especially bearish on Emerging markets - and little has changed
The depreciation of the Emerging Market currencies related to the bear market in commodities is deflationary
All eyes are focused on the Fed in Sep
We think that it would be a mistake to change rates, according to how our indicators see the economy
It may seem boring to keep repeating, but we continue to warn for deflation
The Fed should know this, but seems to think that a small rate hike looks better and does not cause much damage
Our technical model for the S&P is weakening
We still feel that profits will disappoint going foreword
Also we do not like the P/E, Price/Cash and Book Value
The US looks expensive
When we add to this the high margin debt, we must conclude: although based on short term cycles, we could see a bounce, it's still risky to be long
PART 2
VIX – Monthly – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 1 of 9
Our updated VIX chart shows how the projected breakout came right on time
We could see 39
EEM – Weekly – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 2 of 9
This is an updated chart of the EEM
A while ago, we mentioned a possible breakdown of the Head and Shoulders formation
The downside price target is 29
Dow Jones – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 3 of 9
We again show an updated Dow chart
From the cycle top, it went downwards, and cycles are still down
Hang Seng – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 4 of 9
As expected, the bull market dating back to 1975 is over for the Hang Seng Hong Kong Index
Bombay Sense Index – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 5 of 9
India cycles are still down
Kospi – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 6 of 9
Kospi cycles are still down
AEX Index – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 7 of 9
AEX cycles are still down
The next cycle low is projected on Sep 18
DAX Index – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 8 of 9
Cycles are still down for the DAX
this/Disney – Weekly Cycles – August 23, 2015 Sunday – Forecast 9 of 9
One of the darlings of the bull market has been Disney
We showed a couple of weeks ago that cycles topped
Copyright Charles Nenner Research Centre – 9 Forecasts – August 23, 2015 Sunday
The reports forwarded to you from the Charles Nenner Research Center are the copyrighted property of the Charles Nenner Research Center. They are provided solely for your personal use and for the use of your financial advisor, if any, for your benefit only. There is risk in trading markets. We are not Investment Advisors. These reports may not be copied, reproduced, forwarded and/or posted on the Internet or the World Wide Web, or otherwise published in any manner.
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Edited by jdjimenez, 25 August 2015 - 04:15 AM.