Jump to content



Photo

The Inger Letter


  • Please log in to reply
No replies to this topic

#1 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 22,011 posts

Posted 11 September 2015 - 12:15 PM

Gene Inger's Daily Briefing (highlights) - for Friday, September 11, 2015

A more cautious 'Fortress America' - honors the fallen and on this hallowed day will always commemorate those who gave all; and those who followed, for the effort to dismantle and destroy the barbarian Islamic Extremism (please to the White House; stop softening this, and call a spade a shovel) belief system (not just structures) that preys on innocents, while proclaiming piety. Posted Image (Yours truly at the 9/11 Memorial last Summer; honoring all; but pointing to the section dedicated to Flight 77 victims & Pilot / Lt. Cmdr. Charles Burlingame. I had sold him my prior waterfront Florida home a few years earlier; he moved to Maryland when remarrying, and thus switched bases from Miami to Dulles. In his 'off-flying' days was also an Assn't. to the Chief of Naval Operations; the reason for controversy as the unknowing hijackers flew AA77 into that Office. 'Chick' was an awesome guy; and a Gulf War I heroic Carrier fighter pilot too.)Sadly that battle isn't over as we all know; although some politicization of what passes for 'analysis' of the global threat, has numbed the citizenry a bit. Few I venture to say, are aware that over 50 analysts, including 2 Senior Intelligence Analysts, at CENTOM (Central Command in Tampa, which oversees the fight on a daily basis), filed formal complaints with the Pentagon Inspector General; because they believed that higher-up officers and the Administration changed their reports to make them less factual (or just omitted certain key conclusions) in an apparent effort to make the 'facts fit the public pronouncements', vs those public pronouncements adjusted to 'fit the fact'. (More on this to members.) Posted Image Aspirations for a strong Nation, both militarily and fiscally, are all our goals for sure. Only some in Asia, Russia, or the Mideast, might wish otherwise. But it's not helped when facts are suppressed to satiate 'business as usual' in DC. I'm not viewing this in a partisan way; and believe that politicizing military policy is even worse than doing it with financial engineering policies; both of which for most Americans, should be seen in a bipartisan way. Just a heads-up on this. Posted Image (Israeli PM Netanyahu is in the UK, warning the Middle East is disintegrating. A response of 'we support Israel's right to exist' is irrelevant to what the PM's conveying: it's not so much about Israel, but regional destabilization. It's a plea for help, not for Israel per se; but to beat-back Islamic expansionism. It's also a curiosity why John Kerry doesn't get it; the US, Russia, Israel and UK should be on the same side in this conflagration; the world's fate and last chance for the EU to hold together and not become Eurabia, might also be involved a bit.Not to mention US media neglects mentioning Denmark sealed its borders; in a move previewing what's likely elsewhere if stabilization stays so illusive. The market impact is a stronger Dollar, weaker Euro; and more S&P pressure too. So compassion for 'real' refugees yes; allowing a flood 'as is' is an invasion.)Technically- the market had another 'head-fake' up-and-down reversal; that in this case we projected very clearly in (Thurs.) video commentary for traders. It's yet-another 'bigger-fool theory' (style) example of traders pushing for new breakouts; getting a bump as some shorts get run; setting-up the ensuing dive. Posted Image To wit; (how they do this and what happens is detailed to subscribers only.) But in these cases the S&P doesn't get much higher; turning around after spiking. They're then forced to jam-in sales with others; a case of looking for telling their trading desks to sell higher, and the answer that comes back is a famous one: 'to whom'.

Thursday (final) MarketCast

2 o'clock balloon (intraday) MarketCast

Daily action - whiplash behavior was exemplary today; and we're please that (after being flat) we moved to the short-side actually tenaciously urging traders to wait just a few minutes and let the S&P take-out (I was pretty sure it would) the top of the then-existing wedge pattern. It worked-out great! Posted Image That's how we got the Sept. S&P 1964 short-sale guideline (estimated); and a breakeven mental stop because it dropped quickly by more than 5 points. Now we know it's risky holding any (or all; subjective by any trader) overnight; but in this case (just in case) we did. (Yes, retained into Friday morning successfully.)Dec. is now front-month, with a 1000 Discount; so we stayed in Sept. for now.Aside Quarterly Expiration, the FOMC meeting next week, Russian incursions in the Middle East, Turkish attacks on the Kurds (quid pro quo with the US at Saudi Arabia's behest, who knows), and further devaluations (reported 'as if' not so important); you have markets on the edge (outlined to members). Posted Image Prior highlights follow:

This 'white knuckle' rally - was actually less schizophrenic than preceding alternating moves, for several reasons. (Most prior notes delve into the heart of our correct thinking about distribution and risks all year; just for members.)(Bulls) knew it was 'fish or cut bait', with respect to moving the averages up. That relates to a point I've made in the videos, which was that today's move was more technical and less based on being oversold, on reacting to Buffet, or even a World Bank request for the Fed to postpone any rate hike. (The overall EU situation, reinforcing national sovereignty; even EU 'clearing' problems.) Posted Image (Recent rebound moves do not signal any sort of all-clear; nor shall this even mean China's out of the woods; or Europe, now with compassion, essentially being invaded in a way that previously was reserved for the U.S.) China (details redacted, in fairness to subscribing members) We forewarned of disaster there (not just stocks but in property) before the Shanghai crash.

Rising skepticism encounters 'invested' managers unable to be defensive. So they periodically (reveals tactic we know they're embracing). Thus the reality of price levels, even after the break, vs. realistic growth or monetary policy guidance, isn't diminished. Treacherous times. The process evolves.God bless America!Gene Gene Ingerwww.ingerletter.com