44 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Closed QQQ long just before the closing bell at 106.57 (+7.86%) via TQQQ (+25.06%). Now I'm in cash waiting for the critical confirmation on Monday to initiate short positions. More on this later.

Here's the trade in "real time" with specific entry, stop, and now exit.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=161704

[TechMan]

There's a Doji Star for IWM as well as SPY. Contrary to the bullish Engulfing pattern volume spike at the bottom, IWM has the lowest up-day volume today since 8/17/15. Subject to the confirmation on Monday, both the Doji Star and the ADX forewarn the likely end of this uptrend and the beginning of at least a short-term downtrend.

Among other variations, a preferred confirmation on Monday would be a long black candlestick that closes well into Thursday's real body to form a bearish 3-line Evening Doji Star pattern.

[fib_1618]

Closed QQQ long just before the closing bell at 106.57 (+7.86%) via TQQQ (+25.06%).

Nicely done!

Fib

[csw2002]

There's a Doji Star for IWM as well as SPY. Contrary to the bullish Engulfing pattern volume spike at the bottom, IWM has the lowest up-day volume today since 8/17/15. Subject to the confirmation on Monday, both the Doji Star and the ADX forewarn the likely end of this uptrend and the beginning of at least a short-term downtrend.

Among other variations, a preferred confirmation on Monday would be a long black candlestick that closes well into Thursday's real body to form a bearish 3-line Evening Doji Star pattern.

Thank you for the update. I went short on the close, probably jumped the gun again. Though now I feel a bit better as it looks like at least I am not far off your track.

[cycletimer]

There's a Doji Star for IWM as well as SPY. Contrary to the bullish Engulfing pattern volume spike at the bottom, IWM has the lowest up-day volume today since 8/17/15. Subject to the confirmation on Monday, both the Doji Star and the ADX forewarn the likely end of this uptrend and the beginning of at least a short-term downtrend.

Among other variations, a preferred confirmation on Monday would be a long black candlestick that closes well into Thursday's real body to form a bearish 3-line Evening Doji Star pattern.

Guess what Dave! You'll have an extra long a weekend like the rest of us, Monday the market is closed for Columbus Day! My case from the Racenswood wine club arrived today (from a recent trip to Sonoma) and my weekend will be very relaxing.....

[Tim Johnson]

There's a Doji Star for IWM as well as SPY. Contrary to the bullish Engulfing pattern volume spike at the bottom, IWM has the lowest up-day volume today since 8/17/15. Subject to the confirmation on Monday, both the Doji Star and the ADX forewarn the likely end of this uptrend and the beginning of at least a short-term downtrend.

Among other variations, a preferred confirmation on Monday would be a long black candlestick that closes well into Thursday's real body to form a bearish 3-line Evening Doji Star pattern.

Guess what Dave! You'll have an extra long a weekend like the rest of us, Monday the market is closed for Columbus Day! My case from the Racenswood wine club arrived today (from a recent trip to Sonoma) and my weekend will be very relaxing.....

Banks are closed, but the market is open on Monday.

[TechMan]

Guess what Dave! You'll have an extra long a weekend like the rest of us, Monday the market is closed for Columbus Day! My case from the Racenswood wine club arrived today (from a recent trip to Sonoma) and my weekend will be very relaxing.....

Banks are closed, but the market is open on Monday.

That's right. Stock market and futures are open, but bond market is closed.

Anyway, Ravenswood Winery's one of my favorites. I know you must've had a great time there. Good for ya.

[TechMan]

Thank you for the update. I went short on the close, probably jumped the gun again. Though now I feel a bit better as it looks like at least I am not far off your track.

Can you tell me what specifically had prompted you to go short at the close today? Thanks.

[TechMan]

My primary concern is the unconfirmed breakout. An unconfirmed breakout is likely a fakeout. Were that the case, we could see a 20-point throwback on Monday and/or Tuesday. Like I've said, price behaviors are always subject to volume (quality & quantity) confirmations. That's one reason I had also closed my SPXL long position.

On Monday, either we get the confirmation of at least a short-term downtrend or the validation of a trending market rather than going back to a trading market. I can then decide whether to buy 'em back or to initiate short positions.

Edited by TechMan, 09 October 2015 - 09:57 PM.

[csw2002]

Thank you for the update. I went short on the close, probably jumped the gun again. Though now I feel a bit better as it looks like at least I am not far off your track.

Can you tell me what specifically had prompted you to go short at the close today? Thanks.

I went short on three reasons. Under Wyckoff's method, today, despite breaking above resistance, has below average range and volume. I consider it to be an upthrust that should at least portends some short term weakness. I also track smart money vs dumb money pcr ratios, and we had a pessimistic smart money crowd vs exuberant dumb money crowd which is close to an extreme (the last such signal was in early July). Thirdly, a doji is a classic reversal pattern. With all three, I decided to go short with stop 5 points above today's high.

What concerns me is that whether any weakness, is very short term in nature or intermediate term that warrants another trip to the bottom of the range. With a very strong bullish backdrop (Zweig Breadth Thrust triggering, record amount of money still in Rydex short fund as well as another 8 billion dollars outflow from US equity mutual fund last week), I was very nervous holding shorts until I read your update.