44 replies to this topic

[csw2002]

When there's no pickup on volume, bull market default setting is to buy. By default, there are more buyers than sellers in a bull market.

Nasdaq opening 30-min volume is the lowest since the FOMC day on 9/17/2015.

BTW, INTC earnings after the bell today. Semiconductors' interaction with the Dollar could be a leading indicator.

Nasdaq intra-day RV Index turned positive after 11:00 am (yellow dot). After a brief pause, it then took off at around 12:40 pm (red dot) and never looked back. Nice change-up.

A great day for day-traders, not to mention the bonus after-hour INTC post earnings "fast money" trade. Phew!

TM, thanks for the update. Do you find much difference looking at RV using QQQ rather than Nasdaq? I am assuming you are comparing volume against volume average using x (10?) day loopback. With today's drop, does it satisfy the doji confirmation you have been looking for?

[TechMan]

TM, thanks for the update. Do you find much difference looking at RV using QQQ rather than Nasdaq? I am assuming you are comparing volume against volume average using x (10?) day loopback. With today's drop, does it satisfy the doji confirmation you have been looking for?

A Doji is only significant in the absence of other Doji. Based purely on that technicality, there's no confirmation.

Everything's relative. If you're using QQQ, for an example, then you should look at its relative performance to other major index ETFs such as SPY & DIA over time.

Incidentally, Nikkei continues to slide. It's down about 2% and is currently below 20, 50, 100, and 200 DMAs.

[salam]

Dojis mark Indecision and indicate a possible reversal in trend or possible consolidation and pause before the next leg up as we all know. Ive taken profit on half my short trade from 2019 for 20 points. The rest I will add on any spike up or cover on any spike down. Despite European and Asian weakness, the S+P remains stubbornly bullish and closed right on its rising 5dma. Lots of support below due to trapped early bears. Fed days are my guilty pleasure, but I will keep to my discipline and use only small position sizes with slightly wider stops IT direction will reveal itself soon enough. I'm currently 1/4 position short from 2020

[TechMan]

INTC has rallied 5.32% so far from intraday low to high with volume 3 times QQQ. It's safe to say INTC has single-handedly held up the Nasdaq and therefore the overall market today.

Edited by TechMan, 14 October 2015 - 11:46 AM.

[salam]

[quote name='TechMan' date='Oct 14 2015, 05:45 PM' post='733041']
INTC has rallied 5.32% so far from intraday low to high with volume 3 times QQQ. It's safe to say INTC has single-handedly held up the Nasdaq and therefore the overall market today.



[/quote

Added short again at 2001 Now 1/3 short. Stop 2008 on the lot

Selling should pick up into the close

[salam]

Stop lowered to 1999. Break of 1990 awaited

[csw2002]

INTC has rallied 5.32% so far from intraday low to high with volume 3 times QQQ. It's safe to say INTC has single-handedly held up the Nasdaq and therefore the overall market today.

I guess that means still no confirmation today either way.

[TechMan]

I guess that means still no confirmation today either way.

I've felt necessary to clarify this. My last comment was only referring to the confirmation that's required for all candlestick analyses.

As far as my own work goes, here's what I had posted on Sunday night, 10/11/2015.

At this point, this is just my technical "hunch" that's yet to be validated. SPX may not be able to close above 2017.

Mon. 10/12/2015 = 2017.46
Tue. 10/13/2015 = 2003.69
Wed. 10/14/2015 = 1994.24

Yes, it's off by 0.46 on Monday, but it's close enough for anyone to take a shot at it. The fraction's insignificant. I couldn't get around to posting this as a "real time" trade, so I didn't think it's necessary to talk about any trade that's not posted in "real time" couple of days later.

I'm also keeping an eye on this at 1995.31.

[csw2002]

I've felt necessary to clarify this. My last comment was only referring to the confirmation that's required for all candlestick analyses.

As far as my own work goes, here's what I had posted on Sunday night, 10/11/2015.

At this point, this is just my technical "hunch" that's yet to be validated. SPX may not be able to close above 2017.

Mon. 10/12/2015 = 2017.46
Tue. 10/13/2015 = 2003.69
Wed. 10/14/2015 = 1994.24

Yes, it's off by 0.46 on Monday, but it's close enough for anyone to take a shot at it. The fraction's insignificant. I couldn't get around to posting this as a "real time" trade, so I didn't think it's necessary to talk about any trade that's not posted in "real time" couple of days later.

I'm also keeping an eye on this at 1995.31.

Thanks for the clarification. I was trying to find out what your bias is for intermediate term. I am still holding my shorts nervously as I am not liking the fact that the drop so far has lacked momentum, and now we are getting a big pop in Globex session. However, from my limited experience, intermediate term correction usually starts slowly but finishes with big wide range down bars - so the price actions so far are not out of character for an intermediate term downtrend, but could equally be a very shallow pullback that has already run its course.

[TechMan]

Thanks for the clarification. I was trying to find out what your bias is for intermediate term. I am still holding my shorts nervously as I am not liking the fact that the drop so far has lacked momentum, and now we are getting a big pop in Globex session.

SPX close below 1995.31 today following my above referenced rejection at 2017 is a sign of weakness for the intermediate term. Another lower close tomorrow with the PVO above 0 would validate that.

I think you said you had gone short on Friday. Depending on your entry and stop, you should be fine.