11 replies to this topic

[Harapa]

What do you think?

Edited by Harapa, 27 November 2015 - 08:21 AM.

[cycletimer]

What do you think?

Very timely post Harapa as I'm expecting $VIX to spike beginning next week. Just entered positions in TZA and SQQQ. This is day five IWM has been up. Last two occasions IWM / RUT were up five straight days, it topped. Every time. Also short IWM is sizable call credit spreads (bear spreads), expiring Dec. 18th.

Edited by cycletimer, 27 November 2015 - 12:17 PM.

[Harapa]

Thank you for your input. My technical setup(s) offer no support for the sentiment. So I am staying in cash...just my rule..

[Rogerdodger]

I bought UVXY today, 10 points below where I sold it last week.
Trying the Stock Trader's Almanac "Sell into Friday Strength":

Almanac: "Thanksgiving...exit on Friday strength"
(Rogerdodger @ Nov 20 2011, 09:37 AM)

Stock Trader's Almanac: "Trading the Thanksgiving Market" "Come into the week long, exit on Friday strength" is basically the best strategy according to Stock Trader's Almanac, going back 35 years.
Since 1988, Wednesday thru Friday the DOW gained 13 of 22 times for a total 657.51 points versus the following Monday's DOW point loss of 870.79.

EDIT: Updated from this year's Almanac:

Sell into Friday strength.
Wednesday thru Friday the DOW gained 16 of 26 times for a total 658.98 points versus the following Monday's DOW point loss of 739.02, down 11 of 16 since 1998.


I might just try another quick UVXY buy on strength Friday.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 27 November 2015 - 05:49 PM.

[cycletimer]

I bought UVXY today, 10 points below where I sold it last week.
Trying the Stock Trader's Almanac "Sell into Friday Strength":

Almanac: "Thanksgiving...exit on Friday strength"
(Rogerdodger @ Nov 20 2011, 09:37 AM)

Stock Trader's Almanac: "Trading the Thanksgiving Market" "Come into the week long, exit on Friday strength" is basically the best strategy according to Stock Trader's Almanac, going back 35 years.
Since 1988, Wednesday thru Friday the DOW gained 13 of 22 times for a total 657.51 points versus the following Monday's DOW point loss of 870.79.

EDIT: Updated from this year's Almanac:

Sell into Friday strength.
Wednesday thru Friday the DOW gained 16 of 26 times for a total 658.98 points versus the following Monday's DOW point loss of 739.02, down 11 of 16 since 1998.


I might just try another quick UVXY buy on strength Friday.

That position will be profitable for you Roger.

[Rogerdodger]

That position will be profitable for you Roger.

You have more confidence than I do.
Risk at this level, at least short term seems low.
Longer term these products leak badly.
4 years ago UVXY was $240,000 now it's $27! BAHAHAHA!

PS: If it goes back to the 2011 price, I will buy that Greek island. I need another one.

My real name is Robert....as in
De Niro's plan for Caribbean mega-resort opposed by island residents...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 27 November 2015 - 08:01 PM.

[Charvo]

The volume chart I posted below is indicative of the market possibly topping, but I voted no because the VIX index itself still looks bearish. However, it doesn't mean I would short the VXX now. The topping process could go on for a couple more days. I really like to trade the VXX options since the premiums are rather outsized. Implied volatility for the SPY, which is low right now, could go even lower to match the depths of early November or pre-August crash. I staying on the sidelines, but I'm ready to short VXX puts.

[Harapa]

Why I didn't Long VXX/UVXY?

Because, I didn't see any support from Momentum or internals. Any move up in these two, therfore, will likely be small and short lived.

Plan accordingly.

 

[Rogerdodger]

Because, I didn't see any support from Momentum or internals. Any move up in these two, therfore, will likely be small and short lived.

 

 

Seasonally, we bounce around here till mid December, then up till March. So I agree with your view.

But 5% on UVXY is every 15 minutes. LOL!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 November 2015 - 10:33 AM.

[Harapa]

 

But 5% on UVXY is every 15 minutes. LOL!

The Pop Zone for Monday:

UVXY < 26.25