31 replies to this topic

[CRUISENAL]

November is gone. The SPX gained 1.05 pts for the month. Woopie! 

 

 

But price did not penetrate any serious level to cause a change in signal long term. 

 

2050 seems to me to be a support area based on similar past patterns. Today may set the stage for a 8 or 9 day decline to 2050. But then I would expect to see a strong year end rally to 2115-2116 area. Then an early January mini pullback and then a steady move up in January and February. If it changes, so be it. 

 

In my opinion, there is nothing I see on the monthly indicators I follow, to suggest a down move is coming, actually the opposite has occured off the August Sept. low. It looks to me like since the 2009 low we started a leg up, in EW terms,  Wave 1 up. Then 2011 was a Wave 2 down, the 2011 low to the 2015 high was a Wave 3, the 2015 high to low was a Wave 4 and now we are in Wave 5, in the big picture. How high we go is anyone's guess with the Fed Miesters in charge. We are in a period now where the big boys want to scare out the weak traders, buy their shares and then run the market up for a few months. 

 

Lets see how this theory plays out over the next few weeks. But if we get a pullback to 2050 I intend to buy Long for a few months! Best to your trading. I will be back with a mid month review to see if price is following the pattern. 

 

 

 

 

 

[risk_management]

Saw this stat yesterday.

 

https://twitter.com/...424477792747520

[barbu]

11/28/15 SPX weekend

review
- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- supports 2079 +/-, 2072 +/-, 2068 +/-
- in case reversal takes place before 2103,
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines

status
Bear defended the resistance point 2097.94 (0.809)
The pullback (2070.29) came closer to the projection point 2068+/-, more precisely speaking, to the lower point of Zone 1 2069.93-2130.46. See  this chart (11/22)

outlook
As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.

EDIT (12/01):
- 12/01 session high 2098.80, session is ongoing
- 0.3236 = 1.618/5, to validate the wave posibility (not an E-wave fan)
- one of the resistance 2098.53 = (2116.48-1871.91) * 0.3236 + 2019.39

 

chart time stamp: November 28, 2015, 2:32:17 PM
Link: http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg


The year of stagnancy

Jan 2, 2015 S&P500 “Grand Opening” 2,058.90
01 - 1,994.99 month end closing number
02 - 2,104.50
03 - 2,067.89 Q1 end
04 - 2,085.51
05 - 2,107.39
06 - 2,063.11 Q2 end
07 - 2,103.84
08 - 1,972.18
09 - 1,920.03 Q3 end
10 - 2079.36
11 - 2080.41

12 - ????.??

[Spectacular Bid]

The decline in 2011 took around 5 months and retraced over 40% from the 2009 lows after a 2 year + rally. From the 2011 lows to the 2015 highs took over 3 &1/2 years and wave 4 is only a 2 month decline and retraced only 25%. I think it is far more likely we haven't even started wave 4 from the 2009 lows and have only had wave 4 of wave 3 from the 2011 lows and are now in wave 5 of wave 3. If that's the case then a couple of large declines should take place in 2016 for larger wave 4 before the start of wave 5 takes the market even higher in to sometime later in 2017

[CRUISENAL]

SB, that could be a possibility that we are still in Wave 3. Just need to see how it plays out, but still looks UP to me for now for at least 3 months but I still think we get a shakeout before heading UP into February.

[redfoliage2]

The monthly doji for Nov is not a good omen ..........

[pedro]

I agree with red on the doji.

I also agree that we are at risk of no more than a pullback, rather than the onset of a bear mkt.

Wave 4's are tough to discern.    We could be (early) in wave 5 now, or absent new highs, still wrapping up the 3.

I see the risk of an intermediate decline rising as we get deeper into Dec.    Certainly by the first week of Jan.

Edited by pedro, 01 December 2015 - 01:17 PM.

[chem]

my preferred wave count

 

[stockcharthttp://schrts.co/58yUs6[/stockchart]

Edited by chem, 01 December 2015 - 01:47 PM.

[Shaggies_View]

Well given that so many have called October and November wrong, I'd be inclined to fade any strong upward projections.

Lets see.

 

Shaggy

[barbu]

11/28/15 SPX weekend

review
- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- supports 2079 +/-, 2072 +/-, 2068 +/-
- in case reversal takes place before 2103,
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines

outlook
As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.

EDIT (12/01):
- 12/01 session high 2098.80, session is ongoing
- 0.3236 = 1.618/5, to validate the wave posibility (not an E-wave fan)
- one of the resistance 2098.53 = (2116.48-1871.91) * 0.3236 + 2019.39

 

- short term view

- Bear's last hope is 2103 (2103.47 in this chart http://www.chartuplo...85185379746.jpg

- Since the index closed above 0.3236/2098.53, it validates the current sub-wave has good chance move longer than (at least)  0.382/2112.82 in this chart http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg

- since this thread is for monthly view, i will find a proper thread to continue the discussion.

Edited by barbu, 01 December 2015 - 04:19 PM.