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RUT 2016 Outlook


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#1 viccarter

viccarter

    TRIN_Rida

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Posted 31 December 2015 - 03:51 PM

This is a quick copy/paste from me jotting down my thoughts a couple days ago.  I put them in a blog where I store trading links just so I'd have it set in stone whenever I go to check a link.  I put one of my charts with it for a visual.  Basically will be buying dips, selling rips for most of 2016 at prime spots.  Expect similar action as 2015 -- the upside is limited.

 

2016 Russell 2K Targets
 

Breakout in 2013 was around RUT 868.  High from mid 2015 was 1296 RUT.  Expectation is for a lot of retraces into the areas that were blown through on the upside in 2013.  First, we already tested the 50% Fib retracement from the 2013 breakout back at the end of August 2015.  This was around the 1082 area.  I expect this area to be tested again as soon as early 2016.  Next one must keep in mind both the 61.8% retrace at the 1031 area and the the 76.4% retrace right at the 969 area.  With most parabolic arcs like what has happened to the RUT since March of 2009, you will see a retrace into the 61.8% to 76.4% Fib.

The monthly Fib chart of the RUT from the March 2009 bottom needs examination to truly see this parabolic arc.  Note that I am not doing my 2016 calculations based on this, but only the area from the Jan 2013 breakout to the July 2015 top.  Note that I expect that the July 2015 top will be the true top from where the March 2009 arc retracement will be measured.  So what I am saying is that the RUT has already topped from the arc and it is confirmed and we will see much lower over the next few years going down into eventually retest that 868 breakout.

 

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