Confusion, Delusion, Mis-Information or all three?
CITI SOUNDS ALARM: WORLD ECONOMY IN DEATH SPIRAL
The global economy seems trapped in a "death spiral" that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned.
Some analysts — including those at Citi — have turned bearish on the world economy this year, following an equity rout in January and weaker economic data out of China and the U.S.
"The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral," Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday.
"Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)... and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a 'significant and synchronized' global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market."
What jobs? BLS says 665,000 job LOSSES
New Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that there were 665,000 jobs lost in January, a blunt finding that confuses the heralded report that 151,000 jobs were created in January in non-farm payrolls.
But who got them? The very same BLS finds that jobs to "native born" and immigrant workers dropped. Ditto for men and women.
It is possible that many employees took on a second job, according to analysts. But a difference of 816,000 is too big, one said.
Same for the differences in the two surveys the BLS uses to gauge jobs, household data from the Current Population Survey, and "Establishment" data from the Current Employment Statistics, a survey of businesses. Normally they track but not always.
Analysts note that there are several ways to count jobs created and lost but the losses shown among men and women, foreign born and immigrants, is significant, said a congressional expert, who told Secrets, "Maybe big thing this month is just the decline in number of native born workers drops over half million in a month?"