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SPX week 02/08-02/12


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#1 barbu

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Posted 06 February 2016 - 11:37 PM

SPX week 02/08-02/12

 

I punched my head couples times just cannot spot  a textbook alike wave patterns (for Zoom-In & Fine-Tune purpose).  Quite a few seemingly possible candidates poped up but they are premature to post. By combining the already deployed wave structure and the Fibonacci retracement 0.236/1788.29 criteria, a flat expansion that peeks 2K boundary and pokes 1850 would be the most likely outcome, it hangs till the new bear catalyst arrives. (texts in italic, Used in from SPX week 02/01-02/05 http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?/topic/163285-spx-week-0201-0205/#entry740304 ); Conflicting cycle projections for late February (02/22-02/26) ,  It's better to keep my mouth shut.

 

Used In Chart - Supports and resistance

The critical support  zone 1875.84-1865.02. got tested again,  If that zone gives away, then the odd is increasing the mighty SPX will re-test 1812 and switch the riding route to the red color wave in this chart http://forexrainbow....74429164261.jpg

 

46534390995086466971.jpg

 

Used in chart:  zone 1915 to 2018

http://forexrainbow....50717712720.jpg

 

Trend line & support

48094139075386735737.jpg

 

19 January 2016

Fibonacci retracement 0.236/1788.29  is considered a reasonable gauge. As long as the downward movement is maintained above the 1779-1788 support zone, bull still has the chance assaulting 2069/2070. (To be elaborated, a lengthy discussion is not wroth posting at this moment)

The following  long term weekly chart gives an overall pictorial view

chart:  http://forexrainbow.com/images/06454221328165500593.jpg

 

Momentum indicator

http://www.investope...ical/081501.asp

SPX reverses the direction from a pretty negative value but stays firmly in a downtrend. One may adjust the setting and get a feel how much embedding information can be extracted

55414492240515978210.jpg

 

Zoom-In & Fine-Tune score board

1947.06 vs. 1947.20 (actual), Δ = +0.14, : http://forexrainbow....80685761085.jpg

1812.33 vs. 1812.29 (actual), Δ = -0.04, : http://www.chartuplo...30629781891.jpg

 



#2 barbu

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 11:07 AM

01/08/16 In Session

 

06 Feb 2016 - 8:37 PM

Used In Chart - Supports and resistance

The critical support  zone 1875.84-1865.02. got tested again,  If that zone gives away, then the odd is increasing the mighty SPX will re-test 1812 and switch the riding route to the red color wave in this chart http://forexrainbow....74429164261.jpg

 

Bears knock out the critical support  zone 1875.84-1865.02

 

Road map below 1865.02:

[L=2081.56-1812.29, Root=1947.20]

0.3820 1844.34

0.4045 1838.28

0.4465 1826.97

0.5000 1812.57 (session low 1812.29 on 01/20)

0.6180 1780.79

0.7640 1741.48

0.7860 1735.55

 

Set 2

1.2360  1835.21
1.3820  1824.32
1.4140  1821.94
1.5000  1815.53
1.6180  1806.73
 


Edited by barbu, 08 February 2016 - 11:14 AM.


#3 barbu

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 01:36 PM

01/08/16 In session (2)

 

Bulls are putting theirs legs into the quagmire in searching of a possible solid rock so they can duck on.

 

session low 1833.42 (ongoing),

if this particular point becomes a meaningful cluster, then it fills the vacuum in between 1820 - 1865

 

1832.42 (0.382) & 1832.98 (0.618),

across the first diagonal line, the only terminal point remains "outstanding"  is 1791.72

76418916435723451748.jpg



#4 barbu

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 04:32 PM

02/08/16 SPX after close

 

Reporting from my friend's trading room,

there are two full time traders, MaMaMiYa, they trade too fast than i can catch up.

The rest are "wandering" around. i told them i will stay one more day then i will run out of door.

 

session closed at 1853.44

 

- 1833 +/- may become an observed Fib point.

- To see a continuous downward movement, an important resistance 1872.23 is a reasonable gauge

33057125427264512780.jpg



#5 barbu

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Posted 09 February 2016 - 01:51 PM

02/09/16 In session

 

SPX week 02/08-02/12

 

Quite a few seemingly possible (wave) candidates came up but they are premature to post. .

 

The critical support  zone 1875.84-1865.02. got tested again,  If that zone gives away, then the odd is increasing the mighty SPX will re-test 1812 and switch the riding route to the red color wave in this chart http://forexrainbow....74429164261.jpg

 

session high 1861.91, Ongoing

 

1927.35-1828.46

0.3236 1860.46
0.4465 1872.61

 

Market plays the "Hide & Seek" game,  let you guess it is either     ➄ series or a b c series.

usually does not invade into boundary of ➀ @ 1872.23 , that is one of the guides.

 

60137215087532229071.jpg


Edited by barbu, 09 February 2016 - 01:52 PM.


#6 barbu

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Posted 10 February 2016 - 12:03 PM

02/10/16 in session

 

session high 1881.60 Ongoing (1881.48, 0.4465 1947.20- 1828.46)

 

- support 1856 – 1864-1867

- Two textbook reference patterns. These are wild speculations, because the usage is

- for large scale patterns, may not fit for intraday time frame.

- anyway, Use the Fib. points (table in chart) to sense the possibilities.

 

65467355930170960488.jpg



#7 barbu

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Posted 11 February 2016 - 11:46 AM

02/11/16 In Session

 

SPX week 02/08-02/12

 

I punched my head couples times just cannot spot  a textbook alike wave patterns (for Zoom-In & Fine-Tune purpose).  Quite a few seemingly possible candidates came up but they are premature to post.

 

Even though wave 3 can be extended into sub 5 series to get around the overlap issue, the odd is low on catching the later part. i have delved too much details, can't see the forest for the trees. My original decision is right ( premature to post )

 

( useless counting, for illustration only )

70733903302750807220.jpg

session low 1812.82 Ongoing

 

let me aim on large scale chart first, and do the Zoom-In & Fine-Tune later.

 

0.5000    1812.57    ( 1947.20 0.500 2081.56-1812.29 ) and 01/20 Low 1812.29
0.6180    1780.79    

1791.72
1788.29

76418916435723451748.jpg


Edited by barbu, 11 February 2016 - 11:49 AM.


#8 barbu

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Posted 12 February 2016 - 12:25 PM

02/12/16 In session

 

This is the last post for this thread, will open a new thread upon status

 

There is a cryptic linkage in between the Fibonacci ratio and a numbers ratio, thus:  n2/(n+1)2

You may view it as a low pass filter (moving average is an example) but only a few key numbers work better than ohters.

 

For your reference:

 

SPX            
-----------      projection    FIB. Point   actual
0.69444     1482.44       1479.67    
0.73469     1568.37       1560.33    
0.79012     1686.69       1683.25    
0.81000     1729.12       1729.82    
0.84028     1793.76       1791.72    
0.85207     1818.93       1814.78       (1810.10)(pending)
 

ex: 2134.72 * 0.84028 =  1793.76