22 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

DB traded at a new low premarket...

 

From Today's Set of Forecasts:

 

Nasdaq had a perfectly horrible day on Friday as it was DOWN ON EXTREME VOLUME and closed on a NEW CLOSING LOW at 4363 or down another 146 points on the day and that was the lowest closing low since 10/21/2014.  We appear poised to test that August low of 4292, only 71 points away, or just half of Friday's decline.  Now we do know that next week favors declining volume due to the Lunar New Year and the 3 day holiday in the US, but we could still see another strong volume day on Monday that tests the August low.  The only reason people are bullish going into this next week is a hope for divergence - but frankly that divergence may not appear on Monday.  We do see a case for lighter volume later in the week though that could afford a bounce.  So for Monday we are still very cautious about further downside here and a test of that August Low of 4292 - Nasdaq closed at 4363

 

It's a rough day today, but it could ease up by the end of the week as volume lightens up... but If doesn't, that's going to be a very big tell.

 

 

[SemiBizz]

So, if we are really in a bear market, I will tell you one thing from years of experience.  Everyone is looking for that divergent bounce... and if it doesn't come it turns to panic.  Only after panic can we achieve price-discovery... You look at AAPL 92 from August... what was that?  it was PANIC...

 

That's your bottom, after the divergence fails and the feces fan on steroids...

[SemiBizz]

So there are places for those divergences to occur, let's quantify it right now... So we are all on the same page

 

4292 NAS

 

92 AAPL

 

anyone want to add another target, that we can use as a benchmark to define this little event?

 

If we close under those numbers tonight, I will be lowering my targets.

[K Wave]

Hourly close under SPX 1867 lets the bears loose....bulls runnin' outta time fast....

[fib_1618]

Hourly close under SPX 1867 lets the bears loose....bulls runnin' outta time fast....

 

The bulls ran out of time on December 11th when the McClellan Summation Failure was triggered.

 

Fib

[SemiBizz]

Waiting for Pavlov...

 

Where's that Divergent Bounce?

 

What a setup, they open just under the low...

 

at 4290

 

Are they running out of slobber?

 

[SemiBizz]

Next important downside target for Nasdaq is 4116.  4268 is the number it has to maintain here.

 

A little price discovery...

 

I can add SOX 561 to that list.

[SemiBizz]

Amazing that some people consider this activity an uptrend...

 

We're making lower lows on stronger volume, rotating sectors down...

[SemiBizz]

So much for some of these "magic" indicators.

 

It all looks good from the cockpit until you look up into the windshield and see the ground staring at you...

 

But some are convinced that down is up, because the indicators say that it has to be up...

[NAV]

So much for some of these "magic" indicators.

 

It all looks good from the cockpit until you look up into the windshield and see the ground staring at you...

 

But some are convinced that down is up, because the indicators say that it has to be up...

 

Indicators are the crutches for the crippled who don't know how to read the price.