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lots of things are new, market has changed its character


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#41 dougie

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Posted 24 February 2016 - 12:59 PM

I see most all of us in lightening up mode

Wouldn't it be something if the wave 2 came from MUCH higher?

#42 dharma

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Posted 24 February 2016 - 02:34 PM

dougie, that is what the market is telling me . the sentiment #s are middling. being overbought is the nature of a bull, it makes divergences only to stage a thrust to take them out. during the bull i expect the commercials short position to be well over 300k. 

today is options expiration. 

i do see this leg having higher to go. 

just my 2c

dharma

https://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/'

also notice the volume today in dust , folks are bent on shorting this thing

i believe all the way up to the highs the shorts will expect the market to go 

to new lows


Edited by dharma, 24 February 2016 - 02:37 PM.


#43 dougie

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Posted 24 February 2016 - 02:44 PM

thanks Dharma: nice to have a voice of reason around



#44 dougie

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Posted 24 February 2016 - 03:30 PM

Interesting LT juncture TODAY



#45 dharma

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Posted 25 February 2016 - 10:37 AM

there is talk of a yuan devaluation?!

sunday night the indian budget is announced. any cut in the duty is a lower gold price for india. keep in mind the indian mafia makes 10% bringing gold in will jaitley desert his friends ?  i dont have high hopes 

keep in mind that mining costs have come down significantly w/falling oil prices. transportation and mining have to do w/falling costs for miners. they have done some cost savings as well. but most of it is falling oil prices

a couple of possibilities i see  based on the possibility that this time band produced a top

1 this rally to above 1250ish was B of 4 w/ 5 of 1 to come  and higher highs-preferred possibility higher highs to come

2 this rally was 5 of 1 

3 the rally was of the garden variety and lows beneath 1045 are up next.-@ this point this is the least likely

many juniors are +60% and more  i lightened up on some and bought pvg which is an add and hold for me

obviously, there are alot of factors where the wind is at golds back

dharma



#46 dharma

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Posted 26 February 2016 - 11:02 AM

of course i dont have an inkling of the indian budget

but the seasonal chart is not friendly in march http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html

so, i am on the defensive. it will be one of 2 periods of weakness i see this year the other 

is the june/july period. which also coincides w/the cycles

also the dollar looks like it wants to rally against the yen

dharma



#47 dharma

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Posted 26 February 2016 - 03:39 PM

commercials piling on the shorts in gold http://news.goldseek.../1456518756.php

sentiment

this is not the kind of overdone way bullish sentiment that is seen at tops

 The HGNSI was unchanged at 15.63%

. MarketVane’s bullish consensus was unchanged at 48%

 the DSI fell 2 points to 67%. 

the commercials are the smart money and they now have a sizable short position on gold

there are a couple of things that could be seen at this juncture

1 at the least a pullback. it looks to me like gold /miners could have completed a 5 wave advance

2 the rally was another bounce in a bear market

waiting for the market to show its hand , the commercials will be harvesting the hedgies and small specs, no matter which one it is

dharma



#48 dougie

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Posted 27 February 2016 - 02:50 AM

Interesting LT juncture TODAY

so far so good



#49 AChartist

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Posted 27 February 2016 - 10:46 AM

I can allow a bit down in cycles for next week but it did seem to pivot on 2/29 close for me

 

to verify a breakout, it has not broke out yet,

 

just have to see. I would probably chase sunday night futures strength in bitgold or buy

 

a dip next week either way doesn't matter.

 

 

The most brutal thing it could do is a slow grind stochastic pop ripping their face off in a

 

thousand cuts, too slow and trapped not letting them in or out, deer in the headlights kind of thing.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#50 dharma

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Posted 28 February 2016 - 11:17 AM

banksters scurrying to short gold ........................hmm when gold was above 1500 ,chidambaram  raised the duties to 10% and instituted the 80/20 rule devastating indian jewelers and then the gold community, as the 1500trap door opened wide and gold sailed through

then i read this http://economictimes...../51163061.cms  so dont be surprised if the banksters/mobsters in india let the boys know in advance

 the banksters started their campaign in the 1150s  

i have no idea what the indian budget unveils. but i do think more consolidation could be in the cards. it was a fast 200+ up move in gold

dharma

silvers turn will be later in the bull ,  it will have its day. just dont fall in love. the greater fool theory will be on display here. and eventually the 

exit will not be wide enough.  no cb holds silver., to my knowledge.  dont fall in love w/this one.