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Another Meltdown Signature Here

SPX 1675 Next?

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#1 blustar

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 01:45 PM

I have another meltdown signature with a target of 1675 SPX by Feb 10, the 115/230 TD low from August 24 (Oct 15, 2014).  GDX will likely liquidate due to margin calls. Caveat Emptor!!


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#2 CHAx

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 01:52 PM

I'm assuming you mean the GDX shorts could get margin called?  Seems possible with nearly a 50% run in 10 days.......



#3 gm_general

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 02:55 PM

I get the feeling today everyone is in the bomb shelter waiting for the end of the world since oil is down what, like $1? I think everyone should just slap themselves silly and get a grip. Yes, I am definitely being sarcastic yes.gifnuke.gif



#4 CHAx

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 03:06 PM

I get the feeling today everyone is in the bomb shelter waiting for the end of the world since oil is down what, like $1? I think everyone should just slap themselves silly and get a grip. Yes, I am definitely being sarcastic yes.gifnuke.gif

 

Well, if you think oil is the reason these markets are selling off, I think you are misunderstanding the situation.  The real concern is the credit markets for the banks, and the Sovereigns.  Lets be serious here, both in 2009 and 2011/12 the central banks intervened to save the big money center banks, and the sovereign bonds of the EU members.  7 years later, nothing is improving with regard to the balance sheets of the banks or the credit quality of the EU members.  Hence, the very real fears of bail-ins/bail-outs/bank holidays/ massive currency devaulations etc etc etc.

 

 

 

Oil is the sideshow.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523067

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523058


Edited by CHAx, 08 February 2016 - 03:10 PM.


#5 gm_general

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 03:15 PM

 

I get the feeling today everyone is in the bomb shelter waiting for the end of the world since oil is down what, like $1? I think everyone should just slap themselves silly and get a grip. Yes, I am definitely being sarcastic yes.gifnuke.gif

 

Well, if you think oil is the reason these markets are selling off, I think you are misunderstanding the situation.  The real concern is the credit markets for the banks, and the Sovereigns.  Lets be serious here, both in 2009 and 2011/12 the central banks intervened to save the big money center banks, and the sovereign bonds of the EU members.  7 years later, nothing is improving with regard to the balance sheets of the banks or the credit quality of the EU members.  Hence, the very real fears of bail-ins/bail-outs/bank holidays/ massive currency devaulations etc etc etc.

 

 

 

Oil is the sideshow.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523067

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523058

 

OK, but I was reading all kinds of nice articles of how credit was falling apart when the market was going up too. Especially David Stockman's site. What specifically changed as far as this in the last two days?



#6 CHAx

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 03:29 PM

 

 

I get the feeling today everyone is in the bomb shelter waiting for the end of the world since oil is down what, like $1? I think everyone should just slap themselves silly and get a grip. Yes, I am definitely being sarcastic yes.gifnuke.gif

 

Well, if you think oil is the reason these markets are selling off, I think you are misunderstanding the situation.  The real concern is the credit markets for the banks, and the Sovereigns.  Lets be serious here, both in 2009 and 2011/12 the central banks intervened to save the big money center banks, and the sovereign bonds of the EU members.  7 years later, nothing is improving with regard to the balance sheets of the banks or the credit quality of the EU members.  Hence, the very real fears of bail-ins/bail-outs/bank holidays/ massive currency devaulations etc etc etc.

 

 

 

Oil is the sideshow.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523067

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/523058

 

OK, but I was reading all kinds of nice articles of how credit was falling apart when the market was going up too. Especially David Stockman's site. What specifically changed as far as this in the last two days?

 

I'm not an insider so I can't tell you whats happening behind the scenes.  Has anything changed in the last few days?  I doubt it, but who knows.

 

 

 

These major banks are on the long path to zero or near zero without constant central bank intervention.  Are negative rates the end of the line? or the savior via inflation?  I'm not sure.  Markets will have their say.

 

 

 

Asset price deflation is a symptom of credit stresses.  Typically we see central bank intervention in times of stress such as these (hence the reflexive gold rally in recent weeks as fears of monetary debasement grow).  What will the men behind the curtains do?  How far into negative interest rates and monetary "never-never land" will these money manipulators go, I cannot say with certainty.

 

Probably, the biggest take-away from this price action, is that there is NO recovery.  The narrative is destroyed.  Let us be on the look out for the new animal spirits and the asset classes they will drive.


Edited by CHAx, 08 February 2016 - 03:33 PM.


#7 blustar

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 04:32 PM

Today's rally back probably postponed the 1600's until Feb 24.


Blessings,

 

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#8 brucekeller

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 04:39 PM

Yay anytime you get super bearish we reverse. ;)  But you still did make a lot of good calls when you were being more moderate! :)



#9 gm_general

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 05:57 PM

Its more a correlation when I feel annoyed enough to verbally gripe here it indicates the change of direction giveup.gif



#10 Charvo

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Posted 08 February 2016 - 08:28 PM

The trajectory of the down move in the S&P 500 equal weighted is pretty stunning when compared to 2008.  I think it's even more bearish than 2008 if that is even possible.