3 replies to this topic

[tria]

The recent inflows of 'foreign' money from abroad to the US stk mkt will take a double hit in 2016.

From falling share prices and from a falling currency. This is the case more often than not.

Contrary to popular delusions, the Commodity producing Countries Currencies will fare much better than the USD.

 

Best book I ever read : "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

by Charles Mckay

https://en.wikipedia...dness_of_Crowds

 

Just my 2-drachma skepsis

-tria

 

 

Edited by tria, 10 February 2016 - 10:47 AM.

[alexnewbee]

yes, good book. favorite one of JL

[CHAx]

I think a more probable scenario is that any weakness in the dollar will be bought this year.  What I mean by this, is that I favor a slight bearish dollar price bias in first half of 2016, followed by new highs in the dollar during 2017.  This occurring as a wave of bank failures and central bank interventions ignite devaluation concerns throughout the Euro-zone.

 

Gold appears to be trying to find a low, making me think that the gold bear of the last few years was cyclical, within a secular bull trend.  Bottoming could be postponed by widespread de-risking, or perhaps fueled by it.  I think gold is perhaps the most perplexing animal spirit in the short/intermediate time frames, because either price action can be rationally understood.

[alexnewbee]

 

Contrary to popular delusions, the Commodity producing Countries Currencies will fare much better than the USD.

 

Best book I ever read : "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

by Charles Mckay

https://en.wikipedia...dness_of_Crowds

 

Just my 2-drachma skepsis

-tria

 

 

what John Law did in 1716 is one of the first FEDs, no?