7 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

What do you guys think of the strategy of buying batches of the 2018 January calls in either SLV or GLD a couple dollars out of the money and then rolling them over into the 2019 january calls then 2020 and so on....

 

is this a worthwhile long term strategy?

 

it seems like this strategy would be most profitable upon a break to new all time highs, under the highs there is always the risk that the price can flat line for 1 to 2 years creating dead money on the calls, but perhaps that would not be the case as the bull market is already more mature and the next leg up would be a 3rd wave up perhaps strong and more persistent up then the 2001 to 2011

[gannman]

sounds good i have been doing something like that with the gdx and it works fine. first question i would ask myself

is do i believe this is a bull market. if you do you are going to make money buying lt calls slightly out of the money and

letting them come into the money. it will work in a bull market thats for sure

[AChartist]

Not sure if gold will go up with Dow beginning 2017 through 2018 or after,

 

say the gold run goes after the Dow and toward 2020

 

 

I've been about the most right most consistent here buying every low "about" right on my cycles.

 

Every low had potential to be worse but my cycles also had unique supporting configurations giving be

 

conviction to buy. They day several came around insulting the gold bulls was a good signal, I remember

 

the clowns pimping greatest country in the world at 2001 Nasdaq high, did there life fall apart right at that

 

ignorant utterance.

 

 

So sure euphoria this week is a concern now.

 

 

 

If I missed a coin purchase by $40 I bought another one, off $20 average. Pretty close work.

 

 

My worst certified coin purchase is even now

 

and everything else at a good profit. The day of the last low I missed 2016 eagle offered by APMEX at 1118 just

 

because I was out of cash.

 

Which doesn't matter about profit its just mentally comfortable to have

 

some distance from the purchase price. The worst thing is for gold to do sequential $100 days anytime soon

 

because I will have a lot more gold in 2017 than I have now. Its working just how I want, I just wanted some

 

distance off the lows but I don't want it to go up too much either yet.

 

 

I'll need to make use of Armstrong's DOW phase transition then use that for gold, the worst thing is if gold

 

goes up early with the DOW 2017-18.

 

 

In the annuity which is small so far I will move part of it to gold at end of June and I will add to Schiffs gold fund

 

in 401k end of June, it might be a little late for this move even if it spikes again in 2-3 weeks there should be a

 

gentle drift down to end June.

[AChartist]

I said a while ago this bounce had the most potential seen in a while.

 

My cycles can right translate that is called traverse waves they do not have a fixed period, ask Armstrong or

 

Einstein what it means I don't know, it is what it is. In all things in life, in manufacturing you see it how simple

 

 

minds work, they already decided what laws of physics they wanted, and force opinions to fit superstition.

 

 

This is for all the marbles, how you live after 2023. But I do want to stress another gold low early 2017 to

 

prepare capital for. Do you know how much planning it took for me to put 40k into metals over 2 years, it takes

 

conviction.

 

It also might take working the stocks to preserve capital there until Armstrongs phase transition makes new

 

capital available for the gold in say 2018.

 

My silver allocation is really unknown its just a regular savings plan that I dont count or track,

 

I know

 

I got a bunce filing a safe this year lows dwarfing my inventory and my average should be about ok.

 

Just buy every low next one is end of June so far but I said cycles aren't fixed like that.

 

And prepare some alternative capital for a 2017 gold low whatever that means for me I may refinance house

 

from fha to conv in July and take some cash to the side for the next gold buy. I figure I a squatting in the house

 

anyway from 2018 to 2023, it means nothing to me. What Armstrong said about taking a 30 yr with no skin in the

 

game and just walking away with the diaspora waves.

[SilentOne]

Tim,

 

I think whatever rally we see here will top out in coming weeks and then give it all back. Late 2016 or early 2017 would likely be the start of the real precious metal bull IMO.

 

cheers,

john

[AChartist]

I would worry most about late June low, this is the last of all the down cycles in the weekly basis.

 

My weekly only sees up to a 500 week cycle and then I have to look to the monthly for larger cycles.

 

Any time its down we don't

 

know the outcome so I did say some July hedge would be ok to take in about 2-3 weeks and ewave looks

 

that way in dzz for one more low there. I will probably do DZZ because options are too expensive in general.

 

I cant cover 45-50k in metals without options and they are just too expensive, maybe I will find something

 

in options when the time comes.

 

 

After June is a good run up to end of year and maybe real good, then I don't know what the next low in 2017 may look like yet too early to

 

see what develops in cycles. The last I looked the monthly cycles are not really right until that 2017 low.

 

 

And conversely if I am right about a stock recovery to July 4, the gold could be weak until end of June that looks like it

 

is coming together.

[risk_management]

I am totally against it.  This is something you should've contemplated when Gold was 200 bucks lower and volatility much lower too.  Even then, it's a bad idea.

[AChartist]

I would agree its not in a bull mkt yet with these weekly basis lows in June, monthly lows in first of 2017.

 

 

I would also be against leap calls yet, should be able to get better timing early 2017.