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#221 tsharp

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Posted 22 December 2016 - 06:45 PM

Seems to me that the low of the afternoon may have been wave-c:ii, if so, the market could move strongly upward starting tomorrow... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/pps6fc3q1/

 

SPX_60_12_22_16.jpg



#222 tsharp

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Posted 25 December 2016 - 12:59 PM

Many are calling for a steep drop after the new year due to tax selling... I do not see why that would be the case at this point... the next tine on the Andrew's fork is the upper tine at near the fib 1.236 extension of the ~2500 range, and the mid-way would be near the fib 1.146 extension of the ~2350 level... additionally, it's of interest to note how much higher the price level moved after the momentum indicator peaked on the slow momentum daily chart... nearly 500 SPX points higher! will that happen again?  time will tell.

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/d8v63149l/

 

SPX_D_12_23_16_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/siv1a7zrt/

 

SPX_D_12_23_16_2.jpg



#223 tsharp

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 01:39 PM

Just some food for thought as many are calling the top is in...

 

EW is simply a gage of the oscillations of greed and fear... consumer confidence has gone the the highest level since 2004, not exactly fear:

https://www.armstron...o-13-year-high/

 

We have an opportunity to affect change on our own futures:

https://www.armstron...rk-as-it-seems/

 

Does the Fed raising rates mean imminent market collapse?

https://www.armstron...with-deflation/



#224 tsharp

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Posted 28 December 2016 - 09:56 PM

So it appears the corrective structure wasn't quite complete, and thus if wave-c is still in progress, it seems one more segment down could finish things up, at the bottom of the channel line, then back upward in wave-iii... and as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/9zqfuyod5/

 

SPX_60_12_28_16.jpg



#225 tsharp

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Posted 31 December 2016 - 05:36 PM

The SPX did in fact move to a lower-low, so it seems to me, that if my preferred count is correct, that is five waves down in wave-c:ii, so the market is now ready to resume the upward climb towards ~2350, then perhaps ~2500.  If the market continues lower from here, then I need to reconsider and revise the count.

 

I've also posted the SPX daily and weekly fast and slow momentum charts below, which all show that while momentum may have peaked, they are all still in bullish configurations at this time, and no evidence of an IT top is upon us as of yet.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/tlarwsic9/

 

SPX_60_12_30_16.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/tzc3we2ft/

 

SPX_D_12_30_16_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/6z5gk24m1/

 

SPX_D_12_30_16_2.jpg

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/g87mu6di1/

 

SPX_W_12_30_16_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/4kdkzmod5/

 

SPX_W_12_30_16_2.jpg



#226 tsharp

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Posted 03 January 2017 - 06:45 PM

Okay then... so far, so good.  The SPX was up some 25-points at one time today, and closed up 19-points, near the top of its range at ~2258.  

 

The last monthly bar on the SPX, which is also the second segment off the running wave-ii lows (my preferred count) was 90.09 points long (2187.44 - 2277.53), so if the current month exceeds 90.09 points in length (SPX ~2335), it seems to validate the running second wave count and suggests a continuation of wave-iii, as the first bar (wave-i) off the lows is presently the longest, and the second bar (potential wave-iii) cannot be the shortest... just something to watch for.  

 

Also, if the SPX drops below 2178.44 before new ATHs are attained, it suggests a different path is being taken, and a revised count would be needed... for now, I am looking for the ~2350 level to be hit first, then the ~2500 level... then we can see how momentum looks and see if there is enough still in the tank to push higher from there... and as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/60kyneiu1/

 

SPX_60_01_03_17.jpg

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/qyvpz882h/

 

SPX_M_01_03_17.jpg



#227 tsharp

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Posted 04 January 2017 - 09:08 PM

The SPX continued its upward movement today, and while the market did add another nearly 13-points to yesterday's 19-point move, the move seems corrective, as though perhaps a running corrective wave is in play... if so, then tomorrow may see some weakness in a wave-c, before continuing the upward trend... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/nupng6gnt/

 

SPX_60_01_04_17.jpg



#228 tsharp

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 08:04 PM

Today the NYA hit and closed at a new ATH, with the $NYAD also hitting a new ATH, thus confirming the broader market is still participating in this rally...  additionally, the RUT is continuing to show strength, hanging there near its ATHs, with new highs possible as soon as next week, and no negative divergence with momentum in either on this leg up... IMHO, these are not the kind of market conditions where IT tops are made... when participation narrows and negative divergence is seen in the momentum, then perhaps we are nearing an IT top in the broader market... but then the blue chips will still not yet be done... that could still be something we see late in 2017, or perhaps in 2018... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to $NYAD chart:  http://postimg.org/image/z0tlrzmjd/

 

NYAD_01_05_17.jpg

 

Link to weekly NYA chart:  http://postimg.org/image/wkrse54gp/

 

NYA_W_01_05_17.jpg

 

Link to weekly RUT chart:  http://postimg.org/image/bcipagfdl/

 

RUT_W_01_05_17.jpg



#229 tsharp

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Posted 06 January 2017 - 07:40 PM

The Dow, Naz and SPX all hit new ATHs today, with the Dow coming within a fraction of a point of the elusive 20K level... there is a RH&S formation on the SPX that broke upward today, that if it hits its target would take the SPX to ~2310, with the next fib extension level being just above at ~2350... it's doable within a week or two, especially with the majors closing near the tops of their respective weekly ranges today.  Armstrong suggested the tone of today would also be the tone for the remainder of the month, so we will have to see where we go from here.  

 

Link to SPX 60-min RH&S chart:  https://postimg.org/image/za0d9ee3d/

 

SPX_60_min_1_6_17.jpg

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/fpv0y3s9l/

 

SPX_60_01_06_17_2.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/h66jg8v6h/

 

SPX_D_01_06_17_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/mivdudj2x/

 

SPX_D_01_06_17_2.jpg

 

Link to Naz weekly slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/wu7qn1as9/

 

COMP_W_01_06_17.jpg



#230 tsharp

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Posted 11 January 2017 - 06:47 PM

It seems to me that the SPX completed, at today's lows, wave-c:ii, and will be pushing upward from here towards the ~2300 level, then to the ~2350 level before the next pause... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/syr0ym4ex/

 

SPX_60_01_11_17.jpg