363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

Apparently the wave-c:ii was not yet complete, as it morphed into an EDT, so this is my best guess for the moment, basis the 240-min SP00...

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5dds95521/

 

[tsharp]

No change in count or trend from my perspective... it appears the SPX hit another wave-i and may have completed or nearly completed wave-ii by Friday's close, so I would not be surprised to see another upward move this week.  

 

All the other majors, including the broader market indices, are at or near the top of their respective monthly ranges, and IMHO, unless an unexpected trigger event takes place, they should continue upward until a decent negative divergence develops on their respective momentum indicators... even the $NYAD continues to make new highs...  the next fib extension for the SPX is up at ~2350, so that is where I might look for a rest or some profit taking... as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/e7nisl2hl/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ujxkibgt5/

 

 

Link to NYA weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/d7x7wvnbt/

 

 

Link to IWM weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ty8lm7lqx/

 

 

Link to RUT weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/xj4h5fqah/

 

 

Link to BKX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/yzfznkt7d/

 

 

Link to SOX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5ybne68rd/

 

[tsharp]

On Friday I had to exit my SPY LEAP 220 options, disappointed that we weren't able to mount the rally to SPX ~2350, but happy with a substantial gain.  With the daily fast and slow momentum charts indicating the IT direction is still upward, I am looking to re-enter back into the long side when I see a ST bottom on the hourly chart... it appears that could be as soon as this week in the ~2250-2200 range... but as always... time will tell.  The hourly chart has been modified to show a longer wave-ii under way.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/4s4fnr9w9/

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/4gmzaztg9/

 

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5k73mye3d/

 

[tsharp]

SPX appears to have finally completed its second wave-ii and is now moving upward in wave-iii... the RH&S pattern calls for highs upward of 2300, though I suspect a back-test of the neckline will be forthcoming, prior to the ~2350 range... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/xonuptxi1/

 

[tsharp]

Going back to the daily charts above, wherein I suggested the momentum indicators were not showing an end to the IT move...  the fast momentum indicator did what it should do, if the IT move is still alive, and that is, bounce off the ~100 level and move back upward, which it did.  

 

The slow momentum indicator pushed upward to new highs for this move and broke decisively through the highest DTL, thus confirming the new highs in the move.  

 

Needless to say, all major indices are at new ATHs, and there is yet more to come... SPX ~2350 should be the next major target, then ~2500 beyond that.  If my take on the scale of this GSC final move is correct... the SPX could finally peak out at the ~3600 range... watch out above!  As always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/3l9bxvu8p/

 

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/xegc6hivt/

 

Edited by tsharp, 25 January 2017 - 09:57 PM.

[tsharp]

Between work, classes I'm taking, having my seven kiddos back home with me, and starting another business, etc, my time is presently so much more limited... the IT trend is still upward and the expected back-test of the neckline is underway, as I suggested last week... I think the SPX should be back up towards the ~2350 range later in Feb, then we may get some additional sideways or another correction... as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/wg9o2ldqx/

 

Edited by tsharp, 30 January 2017 - 08:54 AM.

[tsharp]

Just a fractal count thought, as I consider the present symmetry...

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/3ysslfe8p/

 

[tsharp]

This is the first chance in a week or so I've had the time to take a closer look at the SPX hourly chart.  I've had limit buy orders in since Friday, based on my daily and weekly charts, but have not been able to get filled; perhaps tomorrow or over the next few days.

 

After looking this evening, I revised the idea above (this morning's post) to a completed wave-i of wave-iii), and it appears wave-ii is underway, with wave-b in work, or possibly complete today, then a wave-c down, with potential for the momentum indicator to find support down at the -100, which is also about where the lowest UTL is located at this time... then back upwards towards that elusive 2350 level... and as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/7caoj03ix/

 

Edited by tsharp, 31 January 2017 - 07:56 PM.

[tsharp]

If the fractal interpretation above is correct, AND the b-wave completed this morning, wave-a ran from ~2301 - ~2268 for about 33 points.  If this morning's peak was the top of the b-wave, then we might look for wave-a to equal wave-c at a low of ~2256 (~2289 - 33) or if we get a 1.618 extension, it could run to ~2236 (~2289 - 53)... time will tell.

Edited by tsharp, 01 February 2017 - 01:47 PM.

[tsharp]

As a follow up to my morning comment, the fractal appears to have completed wave-i:c downward and all or part of wave-ii:c, and likely all, with the position of the overnight trading... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/oju8rh8m1/

 

 

Link to SP00 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/4dqqslcyh/