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#251 dowdeva

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Posted 20 February 2017 - 10:46 AM

Hi, Tsharp,

 

Thanks for answering my question, but what I was trying to ask is there an Elliot Wave analysis that would posit a "TOP" this summer? I am not very familiar with EW analysis, but I was thinking that would make the current wave a 3, or 5, ending in the summer, with an A, B, C to follow (if a 5), and a wave 4 to follow if a 3.

 

Best regards,

 

Lisa



#252 tsharp

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Posted 20 February 2017 - 05:36 PM

Hi, Tsharp,

 

Thanks for answering my question, but what I was trying to ask is there an Elliot Wave analysis that would posit a "TOP" this summer? I am not very familiar with EW analysis, but I was thinking that would make the current wave a 3, or 5, ending in the summer, with an A, B, C to follow (if a 5), and a wave 4 to follow if a 3.

 

Best regards,

 

Lisa

 

Lisa,

 

A picture is often worth a thousand words... this is an update of the chart I marked up on or about the end of Feb or at the first of March...  while the SPX has not moved upward as quickly as I thought it could, with global events moving along as they are, I think this kind of a move is quite possible.

 

Link to SPX weekly EW projection chart:  https://postimg.org/image/rk1y42hnd/

 

SPX_W_EW_Projection_Update_02_17_17.jpg



#253 tsharp

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Posted 20 February 2017 - 07:34 PM

And this is the original chart I uploaded on 3/1/16:  https://postimg.org/image/mwxj9qnyx/

 

SPX_Alt_Count_3_1_16.jpg

 

And another I created on 4/19/16 with a bit more possible detail:  https://postimg.org/image/470b9qaxl/

 

SPX_W_EW_4_9_16_Alt.jpg


Edited by tsharp, 20 February 2017 - 07:35 PM.


#254 tsharp

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 04:35 PM

No change in IT or LT trend as of yet, though the ST trend appears to be in need of a rest, as you will see from the hourly SPX chart below, the negative divergence continues... the next target by my work seems to be SPX ~2500, though I am not sure the ST (hourly) chart has the momentum to continue climbing there without a bit of a reset on the momentum indicator first... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/xhfgvquhl/

 

SPX_60_02_24_17.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/55twypal5/

 

SPX_D_02_24_17_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/s8kfxvc2h/

 

SPX_D_02_24_17_2.jpg

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/bm2vosj4p/

 

SPX_W_02_24_17_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/9612ay121/

 

SPX_W_02_24_17_2.jpg



#255 dowdeva

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 07:23 PM

Thanks so much, tsharp,

 

That is along the lines I was thinking, but was wondering if it was pure hallucination on my part.

 

I have downloaded the chart and will be following your meticulous updates. Learning quite a bit of EW by just following you; I usually go and look up something after you post.

 

Good luck in your trading and my blessing on your 'brood.' Hope you have at least three bathrooms if it's girls. I have a friend who was the youngest son with five older sisters. I was interested in him romantically at one point, but he was just so used to being taken care of...when he didn't know where the frying pan was in his own house, I passed.

 

laugh.png



#256 tsharp

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 08:15 PM

Thanks so much, tsharp,

 

That is along the lines I was thinking, but was wondering if it was pure hallucination on my part.

 

I have downloaded the chart and will be following your meticulous updates. Learning quite a bit of EW by just following you; I usually go and look up something after you post.

 

Good luck in your trading and my blessing on your 'brood.' Hope you have at least three bathrooms if it's girls. I have a friend who was the youngest son with five older sisters. I was interested in him romantically at one point, but he was just so used to being taken care of...when he didn't know where the frying pan was in his own house, I passed.

 

laugh.png

 

FOUR bathrooms... and I help as much as possible here in the home... my partner came from a family of nine kiddos also, so knows how much sacrifice and work goes into preparing young lives to become independent, well-functioning contributors to society... it's a lot of roll-up-the-sleeves and kick butt hard work from the time we awaken to the time we collapse at the end of the day!



#257 tsharp

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Posted 28 February 2017 - 07:57 PM

Just another day in bullish paradise... the SPX finally gave up a few points on the day, and the negative divergence of price versus slow momentum on the hourly SPX continues to persist... I think a few days of pullback is still in order, but as always... time will tell.  

 

The monthly bar just completed is suggesting higher prices ahead, though it remains to be seen whether there is a pullback prior to moving upward to the ~2500 range.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/cvndhzpp5/

 

SPX_60_02_28_17.jpg

 

Link to SPX monthly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/c7eiz1qzd/

 

SPX_M_02_28_17.jpg



#258 tsharp

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:48 PM

We all should know by now that negative divergence is not a sell signal, as the market can surely remain in negative divergence for much longer than you have tolerance for the draw-down, or margin call... that said, the US markets liked what Mr. Trump had to say last night, and rocketed upward right out the gates today, with new ATHs in all the major markets.  You can continue to see the negative divergence on the hourly chart, but the slow momentum on the daily continues moving higher, thus confirming the new highs and telling us no IT top in place for the foreseeable future.  Please note on the daily fast momentum chart that the 100% extension for the wave-i off the Feb lows is just above at ~2416.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ndi0rhfx5/

 

SPX_60_03_01_17.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/3lkg5xtqx/

 

SPX_D_03_01_17_1.jpg

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/p99egdu55/

 

SPX_D_03_01_17_2.jpg



#259 tsharp

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 06:51 PM

Negative divergence continues on the SPX hourly slow momentum chart... a possible ST sell signal would be when the momentum line crosses through the dashed UTL on the indicator section of the chart... until then, it's still a ST upward market.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/8cykck7o9/

 

SPX_60_03_02_17.jpg



#260 tsharp

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:24 AM

So the negative divergence on the hourly SPX is not the only thing suggesting a potential ST pivot is coming... http://www.traders-t...nating/?hl=uvxy

 

The 200 MA is starting to turn upward and the price bars are also starting to spend more time above it:  https://postimg.org/image/jlvl2ovyx/

 

UVXY_15_03_02_17.jpg