363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

With all the geopolitical tension going this long weekend: North Korea expected to test a ballistic missile, today's dropping of a ten-ton bomb on supposed ISIS tunnels in Afghanistan, the mounting tensions with Russia, the Frexit vote... I'm a bit surprised the market held up as well as it did.  If any surprises occur over the weekend, Monday and next week could push hard downward towards that elusive ~2300 or ~2250 level.  Latent TLs have supported today's close on hourly SPX with both the price and momentum charts.  

 

On the UVXY 15-min chart, we see the price bar continuing to make new highs and is still nicely above the 200ma.  By way of reference, while the price has risen up to the ~22 level, over the last two years, the price has been up at to ~104 last October and all the way up to ~2280 in August of 2015... so the price is still relatively low and can move quite a bit higher without even hitting the next highest range.

 

Finally, the daily SPX fast momentum chart seems to suggest a bit more movement to the downside... with the momentum indicator pushing downward towards the zero line, it could actually shoot below to the confluence of the latent DTL and the UTL, just below the zero line... a move like that could drop the price level back down to the price UTL as a back-test of that TL, which is about that ~2250 range I keep citing... interesting times indeed... and as always... time will tell.

 

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/q3t8hpkux/

 

 

Link to UVXY 15-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5xpqitp7d/

 

 

Link to SPX daily chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5m8a628rd/

 

Edited by tsharp, 13 April 2017 - 07:40 PM.

[dowdeva]

T,

 

Can you really give historical UVXY share price as targets, considering price share loss due to daily rebalancing, etc., as an inverse benchmark for SPX? 

 

Even if the SPX were to decline to price levels that were proportionate to the UVXY targets on the past dates you mentioned, would they hit the same targets again, due to above reasons?

 

~D

[tsharp]

T,

 

Can you really give historical UVXY share price as targets, considering price share loss due to daily rebalancing, etc., as an inverse benchmark for SPX? 

 

Even if the SPX were to decline to price levels that were proportionate to the UVXY targets on the past dates you mentioned, would they hit the same targets again, due to above reasons?

 

~D

 

I'm sorry if I seemed to suggest those points were targets, they were only relative references to show that while the price had risen, in historical context, it was still quite low, though above the 200ma.

[tsharp]

Unless the last pivot low a couple days ago is the end of the c-wave, it seems to me that the b-wave is still in work, with perhaps one more wave upward, then wave-c can commence... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/tj815euvt/

 

[tsharp]

Hi all,

 

I realize it's been about a month since my last post, but work schedule and life's little complications have gotten into the way... thankfully, it seems some of those complications have been resolved today, and with those issues behind, I hope to have more time to post here again.

 

Today's sudden drop feels like a c-wave, though it could also be interpreted as a wave-a:ii, with the last market high being the end of wave:i:iii, though I lean towards the former a bit more, as the Dow did not confirm the latest highs on the SPX and Naz.

 

That said, if this is the wave-c I had been looking for, a target of ~2250 would still be my preferred target, and it seems the indicator lines on all the charts are suggesting a continuation lower from here... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/8n9fm4yc9/

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ckwpbjl5l/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/x6bh3g2qh/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/qh4xnfheh/

 

[tsharp]

Today's downward move was interesting... the VIX moved 46% and stopped at a latent DTL... the next DTL is up in the 17s... if we break that, it's likely we finally have an ST high in... twt.

 

Link to VIX daily chart:  https://postimg.org/image/p3das4i55/

 

[tsharp]

I've revised my fractal count to reflect what seems to be the most reasonable count at this time... I see a clear five waves upward, that I count as the first minor wave of wave-v... the SPX could continue climbing to as high as the ~2500 range, before a meaningful correction, though I feel it is now in the range that it could correct first (note the negative divergence on several charts of price versus momentum), then continue climbing (note also the positive positions of the momentum lines on the daily and weekly charts - above +100)... I still see much higher prices, such as ~3000 or ~3600 before the end of this phase of the bull market... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX weekly EW chart:  https://postimg.org/image/m7ua8xmft/

 

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/b9j0qqxuh/

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/71o8hzwex/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  ttps://postimg.org/image/piin8tcd5/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ab79279w9/

 

[tsharp]

Hi all,

 

I apologize for the slower frequency of posting over the past couple of months, the kiddos are now out of school and we are catching up on six years apart, and I'm also involved in a start-up, so my already limited time is even moreso.  I will endeavor to put up at least one update per week and hope to get it up today or Wednesday... the SPX appears to be in an EDT... and while I thought I may be able to reach the ~2500 level before it corrected, I'm not so sure now... twt.

[tsharp]

Okay then, I was supposed to update things, and when I went into my TD Ameritrade charts, EVERY chart had been stripped of my lines and annotations, so I will need to re-work all the relevant charts... that may be a week or so away still, as I am heavily involved in so many things at this moment: my wifey, my kiddos, my regular employment - typically 60-hours per week, plus a 20% interest in a start-up.  Anyway, I will try to get back to working on my charts, though I need to find out if they can be restored first, and if not, what caused this issue, so I don't have to deal with this again.

 

In the meantime, SPX is just short of the 2500 range, which I've been citing for some time now, so a correction would make sense in the near future, just to work off the overbought conditions and bring the bears out of the woods, so it can move upward to the next fib level, which I think would likely be the ~2900 range... twt.

 

Thanks for your understanding and patience!

[tsharp]

It appears the temporary ~2500 high may be in at this time and a minor correction is unfolding.  We may find some support in this range, then the next support is down in the ~2420 range, basis the SP00s.

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/5icg4pl7d/