Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 11:05 AM
I agree Dharma about which leads what but diversions are known to last for many moths
or even years some times. All the miners are doing is adjusting to the fact that Gold may
not drop below $1,000.
Using your logic, since the miners are leading and made a new low in January 2016,
then Gold should make a new low too some time this year. Just saying...
Edited by tria, 13 April 2016 - 11:15 AM.
In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 11:54 AM
tria,i think that possibility is remote , but real. i havent thrown it out the window. i am aggressive , but cautious. i closed one position today. which i put on thinking it would take some time to develop . then a few days later its up 60% so , i closed it. as i do think we pullback into the 26th -28th low that i anticipate. the strength in the miners is very encouraging. i do expect corrections. its part of the process , expecially since we are still in the bottoming process. and i think the summer will be a reminder of that.
dharma
Edited by dharma, 13 April 2016 - 11:55 AM.
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 11:58 AM
This PDF chart of $gold shows a retracement to 1134. Personally I would not be surprised by that. At this time my daily chart of spot gold will issue a sell signal @ 1242. For now I remain 100% long in the PM miners portion of my overall portfolio with a plan to selectively sell into renewed strength in the May/June time frame if all occurs per plan. Most of those stocks will be replaced and/or repurchased in late summer or early fall as I see it now. Of course I have a plan B and C. 
Lots of rallies and corrections will be in store for the gold and silver sector for a long time. I trust I have the good sense to turn those into opportunities.
Thanks for the thread and all posters for their thoughtful input.
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 12:19 PM
tria,i think that possibility is remote , but real. i havent thrown it out the window. i am aggressive , but cautious. i closed one position today. which i put on thinking it would take some time to develop . then a few days later its up 60% so , i closed it. as i do think we pullback into the 26th -28th low that i anticipate. the strength in the miners is very encouraging. i do expect corrections. its part of the process , expecially since we are still in the bottoming process. and i think the summer will be a reminder of that.
dharma
Remote possibility may be, but using your logic if 'M' leads 'G' in every ST/MT/LT high/low,
it follows that since 'M' made a new LT low in Jan16 then 'G' should also make a new LT low this year,
philosophically speaking. 
Edited by tria, 13 April 2016 - 12:27 PM.
In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 12:58 PM
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 01:30 PM
So who here thinks the bear is dead?
For the GDX, me and my alter ego...
For Gold, my alter ego only...for now...
In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.
"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 01:46 PM
of course its a market. most of the time the miners lead!
it could play out as you suggest. it may not.
so far the miners have made 2 new highs , not substantiated by gold
i think new lows for the metal are a remote possibility , but not off the radar
i see the summer , if that were to occur as a time it could occur
dharma
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 02:43 PM
this expresses my thoughts on gold bull markets :While we still do not have a long-term confirmed bottom in the metals complex just yet, the price action is quite indicative of a very bullish market. You see, when the metals are truly in a bullish trend, they do not see deep retracements, which forces market participants to chase price, as most corrections are simply high level price consolidations. This is starting to look like what we are seeing in the GLD and GDX. http://www.321gold.c...burt041316.html
note the link to his counts at the bottom
dharma
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 04:36 PM
this expresses my thoughts on gold bull markets :While we still do not have a long-term confirmed bottom in the metals complex just yet, the price action is quite indicative of a very bullish market. You see, when the metals are truly in a bullish trend, they do not see deep retracements, which forces market participants to chase price, as most corrections are simply high level price consolidations. This is starting to look like what we are seeing in the GLD and GDX. http://www.321gold.c...burt041316.html
note the link to his counts at the bottom
dharma
THANKS. I like his counts o[n that link. Seem pretty darn straightforard.
Member
Posted 13 April 2016 - 09:32 PM
not counting today, we had 6 up days in a row on the gdx, it corrects today, and now the bull comes into question and the bears come out.
well if we look at sentiment:
The HGNSI fell 13.3 points to at 20%
. MarketVane’s bullish consensus rose 1 point to 56%,
DSI was unchanged at just 61%
the cots are only one way to look @ sentiment. this is another
there is also the nav on cef which expands and contracts as sentiment/demand commands
a correction could take the form of a running correction? i dont think we have a deep
correction . here and now. i am looking for a low going into the 26th-28th
just my 2c
take a look at these sentiment figures as compared to 2001-2008
lots of things to worry about
cash provides no return
dharma
Edited by dharma, 13 April 2016 - 09:33 PM.
