In addition to the stock trading system, I keep an eye on a clutch of long bond indicators which are standing on a chair and screaming right now.
1) CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows the usually correct Commercial Hedgers heavily betting on rising rates
2) A host of commodities are breaking out and running including the grains and silver which seems to say higher inflation is coming
3) The leveraged short long bond TBT has just broken above the 200 day MA and above a long trend line on the daily chart
4) A big multi-year double/triple top is evident on a weekly closing chart of bond futures
In addition to the technicals the FED appears to have lost all credibility backtracking on previously set redlines for rate hikes and playing politics to kite the stock market higher into the election. The number of dissenting votes at the next meeting should be shocking.
I would love to see a back test of the 200 MA and broken trend line for an optimal buy spot for TBT. Wish me luck.
P.S. Tomorrow is the next stock market risk cycle turn or acceleration window. My system was forced in at gun point a few days ago, so I'm in bed with this pig and not loving it. I fully expect a whipsaw loss, so I've snugged my stops up tighter than Beyoncé's drawers.
Regards,
Douglas
