6 replies to this topic

[tria]

   EOM

 

[csw2002]

Is Industrial Production that important a part of the US economy today vs 16 years ago or even 7 years ago?

[colion]

Is Industrial Production that important a part of the US economy today vs 16 years ago or even 7 years ago?

 

It declined from about 17% in 1997-2000 to 14% in 2000-2005 to 13% in 2005-2015 (http://data.worldban.../NV.IND.MANF.ZS)

[tria]

Is Industrial Production that important a part of the US economy today vs 16 years ago or even 7 years ago?

 

Industrial Production is not what worries me, it is the MAs negative crossing in the Wilshire 5000 composite

that does actually. I am sure the USA can import everything that needs manufacturing from abroad one day

and the S&P making new highs with a 'forced feed to feel good' Fed.

[dasein]

what is the important part of the US economy and does it have a competitive advantage?

[gm_general]

If you take that long term P/E chart (is it CAPE?) and draw declining resistance lines on the periods of P/E bubble deflation, you will see they are all about the same slope down over time (so far), and all deflations (so far) have terminated with P/E in the range of 5-7. So if you apply a similar slope to the current deflation that began in 2000, the recent P/E peak would be around that resistance line. You can deduce where that would leave the market if P/Es were to drop to 5-7 range.

[tria]

If you take that long term P/E chart (is it CAPE?) and draw declining resistance lines on the periods of P/E bubble deflation, you will see they are all about the same slope down over time (so far), and all deflations (so far) have terminated with P/E in the range of 5-7. So if you apply a similar slope to the current deflation that began in 2000, the recent P/E peak would be around that resistance line. You can deduce where that would leave the market if P/Es were to drop to 5-7 range.

 

Interesting observation GM that the declining resistance lines are parallel to each other !