Few things I am observing here we need to see the reaction tomorrow. Feels like a lot of people short on TT, but doesn't feel that way on Twitter. My stream is full of what I consider decent traders getting histrionic on things like Brazil and Oil/Oil Companies.
I feel like there have been 5 main trades themes in 2016:
1. The January Index/SPX short play (Jan. 4 -- Feb. 11)
2. The GDX/Gold long play (Jan. 25 -- current)
3. The Crude and E&P retrace (Feb. 12 -- current)
4. The Index/SPX long play (Feb. 12 -- current)
5. The Brazil/EWZ long play (Jan. 27 -- current)
Out of these, only SPX is still on a monthly buy. GDX, CRUDE/E&P, EWZ still on monthly sells. I feel like I was really on top of 4 out of 5 of these. I did not see the Jan index short coming. I have traded GDX pretty well. I traded the long SPX trade coming out of Feb. 12 extremely well. I have not turned bearish until fairly recently. I saw the Crude trade coming and was positioned long during late February in a basket of oil and gas names, however, if you recall the equity names didn't squeeze until around first of March, and I sold the morning of March 3 and left so much on the table during one of the most epic squeezes I have ever seen. I fully have been aware and followed the long crude and oil and gas names as they consolidated and I thought they would move higher, but I just wasn't able to pull the trigger and ride this latest trend move up because I was very leery of the overall market on the long side. Poor execution on my part.
Anyway I have been on top of most of these big 2016 moves, some of these I have traded well. Sometimes at a bigger turn, I'm a touch early. Just the way it is. I see all the Twitter Brazil/Crude pumpers as VERY LATE to this party.
We should turn down on the SPX very shortly. Be patient and protect yourself.
