3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

As predicted (and dreaded), the system was stopped out yesterday.  The system is currently in cash.  The most recent turn or acceleration window  expected by mid-week showed up on schedule yesterday too. The next turn or acceleration risk window at this point appears to be next Friday May 6th. 

 

Watch the US dollar which appears to be about to break the neckline of a multi-year double top pattern which could send it sharply lower.  The FED inaction is further trashing an already fairly worthless piece of paper. At some point the weaker currency should feed into price inflation which might finally put a stake in the heart of the bond market vampire which has been alive seemingly forever.   Also watch the emerging markets, cause if the dollar does break, EM should fly.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[dasein]

relative value is what paper currencies are judged on - the dollar isnt bad - in fact compared to the Euro we should be a lot higher IMO.

[Douglas]

I should note that there is one rather reliable risk cycle turn today.  The centroid of the plethora of risk cycles that turned this week was, as I noted earlier, the middle of the week, but today's offering is higher quality.  It's just one lone soldier, but it might just temporarily at least stem the tide of the crumbling market indexes.  Monday will tell the tale.  

 

Today the dollar appears to have broken the neckline of the double top I noted above, so Monday may also tell if I was making much ado about nothing in noting that risk. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Lysis]

We're at a pretty good inflection point here on the SPX.  Down Monday and the market is going to be down all of May; up on Monday and it's another fake out, with 2100 on the index as the upper boundary.  Again, 2000-2100 appears to be the Darvas-esque box that we're likely going to move around in until the election.