16 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

The bounce got sold. This is not looking good.....

[redfoliage2]

My work is monthly, and SPX is set up similar to the past two long term tops although this one was a stronger up move off the 1810 SPX low. In each prior instance, resistance was hit after the initial high. I drew diagonal lines off the August 2014 high down to and thru the lows in August 2015 and the lows in January and February 2016 and drew them out past that point several months. Also did this for 2000-2001 and 2006-2008. Same pattern exists. The target is based on that pattern recognition. We should hit and exceed below the lower diagonal line running thru Feb 2016. It projects that 1700-1750 area and based on the reversals of Feb 2001 or May 2008, the target would be to drop below that lower diagonal line in June and reverse. So time wise I would say 6 weeks down. That is not saying that will be the end of the down trend, just a stopping point along the way to a likely lower decline point. Maybe I might do some long term Fibonacci retracements on the monthly and compare to back in those older time frames. That could give a clue how low it might go before a major bottom. But I could be all wrong. With the Fed in the game, unfortunately, it is anyone's guess really. Although their influence we have seen for awhile, How far will they go attempting to prop up markets without creating a massive bubble and a debt crisis of unknown proportions? We live in scary times as the FED could do a total change at any moment. IMO, they stand little chance of raising rates much. They know that the interest on the debt if they raise rates will make things much worse. They are hoping for growth based on their money printing schemes. But growth is slowing here and worldwide. They are trapped! My guess is they are already planning for no rate increases or a very minimal rise, not more than 1%. The markets are technically weakening so if this market starts to tank, they have little they can do. Be Careful.

I see your point. Thanks.

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 April 2016 - 01:45 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Still trying to bounce, double bottoming?
I see the bounce will continue Monday....

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 April 2016 - 02:22 PM.

[redfoliage2]

The VST signal is still neutral

[CRUISENAL]

50% retracement from 2052 to 2111 possible or 2081. Then down more. 

[redfoliage2]

Signals at the close Friday:

VST in Neutral mode;

ST in firmly Bearish mode.

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 May 2016 - 06:27 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Since the VST target met I see SPX will back-test 2070 - 2074 area either this afternoon or early next week.............

BTW, I went covered ...........

The bounce in Friday afternoon almost touched 2070 - 2074 target zone ...........

Let's see if Monday can bring it to the target zone or not, I'm ready to short into bounces..........

Edited by redfoliage2, 01 May 2016 - 06:38 PM.