2 replies to this topic

[Rocketman]

Good Morning Trader Talkers, I thought you might be interested in this. Yes, mini crashes are always unlikely and we are already oversold, so take it Fwiw and FYI only. Good Luck!

 

 

http://safehaven.com...-on-the-horizon

In my last public blog post a few days ago, I was looking for an 4/26 Geometric CIT Low, that was either the 4/25 Low or it could be inverting to an important 4/27 swing High instead.

 

To get the Timing right, I use my proprietary Timing Change in Trend (CIT = High or Low) dates that are either exact or  +/- 1 day, below are the most recent ones (as mentioned athttp://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/ in the past)

 

Time CITs:

 

1. 4/13 Time Square CIT => 4/12L
2. 4/20 Geometric and Solar CIT => 4/20H
3. 4/26 Geometric CIT => 4/25L or 4/27H?

 

 

The 4/26 Geometric Time CIT was either the 4/25L@ 2077.52 SPX or 4/27H@ 2099.89 SPX. 

If we decline below that 4/25L, then the 4/27 High gets confirmed as the 4/26 Geometric CIT and if we rally above the 4/27H, then the 4/25L gets confirmed.

 

Cycle CITs:

 

I have been following an active Inverted cycle in my newsletter, ever since the 2/11/16 major Low.  An Inverted cycle means it is a historical cycle that is predicting exact future Highs and Lows, within 1-2 days, but inverted, meaning a past High is predicting a future Low and a past Low is predicting a future High.

 

This dominant inverted cycle (red vertical lines on chart) has seen 9 “hits” and 1 miss:

 

1. 2/11L
2. 2/24L
3.  3/4H
4. 3/11L(-1)
5. 3/17H (miss)
6. 3/28L(-1)
7. 3/31H(+1)
8. 4/12L
9. 4/22H (-2)
10. 4/26 Low or High?

 

 

 

At any point this inverted cycle can invert back to a “straight” cycle and that may be the case at the inverted cycle’s projected 4/26L may have inverted to an 4/27H. The next few days will make that clear.

 

Why is that important? Because if we did see an 4/27H, then that same cycle now suggests a mini Crash wave is on the Horizon and that historical Crash Low date was on one of Carolan’s infamous Dark Days.“The lunar dates 7-27 and 7- 28 are the “dark days, ” encompassing the various Black Tuesdays of N.Y. in 1929 and Hong Kong in 1997, and the Black and Blue Mondays in N.Y. in 1987 and 1997 respectively. In each case, lunar date 7-28 marked the end of the panic and the next two days, 7- 29 and 7-30”

(More information at http://docs.mta.org/...998DowAward.pdf)

 

What is interesting here, is the current date I have for the possible mini crash Low is directly linked to those dark days!  (Yellow projection line on chart does not give the exact date)  That date is also a Major Time and Cycle Cluster as it has 2 Time Squares CITs, the dark day CIT and several cycles all suggesting a Major CIT on that date. Caveat: If that date is not the mini crash Low, it will be the High to get short for a sharp 150+ SP decline afterwards. In any case, it should be an important turning point to watch in the markets. 

[AChartist]

Really ugly in Dow Log Qtrly

 

once a supporting 5 qtr high finishes next qtr which looks to me to be July weekly basis, is sharp deep and nasty lows,

 

could be an absolute crash. Likely lows could be at 3 then 9 quarters, early 2017 low, bounce then 2018 low.

 

I am pretty much done with this market going into liquidation mode with some attempts up this week then

 

short in July. I will move a little more 401k to the Grizzley short fund in some up days this week but not real

 

short until about Jul 4.  At best

 

could be a couple up days early in the week but the minicrash wave is looming. I have the

 

potential minicrash cycle in RUT daily coming up during May and will use a little UVXY for that.

 

All that time to 2018 should be the absolute tear in gold, like after 911 the 401k tripled being nearly 100%

 

in gold with a couple parabola trades in energy.  I put in a 401k gold sale at the absolute high and fidelity screwed me

 

and cancelled it, waited a long time like a year to sell the next high.

 

 

Really what gold is going to do might only take 10% gold to hedge a stock fund, I will be around 50% gold at least in 401k

 

for the duration just looking for a fake stop run down, retest the breakout.

[AChartist]

I did some gold constant purchasing power comparisons, the industrial labor unions that destroyed all life on the planet

 

were making $500k a year in current purchasing power when they collapsed America 1970's.

 

 

The point is only gold will survive this through 2018, paper is so over.

 

 

Armstrong seeing it too, majority to lose everything. This is my specialty not to lose.

 

A 50% decline requires a 100% gain to get even and by that time to recover a 100% gain in 10 years

 

your currency devaluation has you down a new 50% requiring a 200% gain to get even.

 

All loss counts at least twice but more likely 4 times on the pace of tax and currency loss, the ignorant are now down 5x labor

 

purchasing power in 20 years and chanting for more (tax and terror).

 

 

Gold should be the sufficient hedge but short can help. It may only take 10%-20% gold hedge in paper accounts to hedge, I will start to use some

 

volatility hedges here.

 

 

So we exceeded expectations in a quality challenge and when they figured out how much money I saved they want a new 5% to sustain profits in the collapsing

 

economy. I got a promotion followed by annual raise for $1100 a month, while I am returning a new $1M a month for them on the top the $1M a month

 

in previous year 2013. Stock price was rising since I got there.

 

 

They cant have too much wage disparity in the workforce or it causes social and moral issues, inequality. The corporation is communism, everyone gets the

 

same. So basically all I get for it is standing.

 

When they got what they wanted (communism), they chant for more. Communism is the corporation.

 

 

 

Armstrong:

 

Such a move in the Euro to exceed last year’s high would most likely result in a tremendous setup for a FALSE MOVE and the slingshot we see that appears to be unfolding from next year onward. Everything from oil, turmoil in Saudi Arabia, commodities (including metals) to stocks, bonds, and currencies, are all warning that we will see the crazy times ahead in trading where most will lose everything.