The next likely risk window identified by the system is Monday May 23rd which lies slap bang in the middle of six risk cycle turns. The Friday the 13th's risk window action was not as solid as I was expecting given the large number of risk cycle turns last week. The action Monday the 16th will determine if it was a turning point or a rarer acceleration of the down trend event.
The system was forced out into cash in a whipsaw losing trade when all stops were crossed Friday. For once I didn't feel like an idiot for ignoring the system's buy signal on May 6th as I mentioned in my last post. Usually when I second guess the system, I'm wrong.
This market seems to be stumbling forward on ever weaker legs driven solely by FED mouth piece fuel. I have all but given up my search for a black swan since key risk cycle dates have slipped by without the feathered beast ever making an appearance. My anticipation for a quick, decisive correction has been replaced by the tedium of watching internal market rot take hold. At some point the rot will try to kill the patient forcing the FED to double down with more than just gum flapping. I suspect that the tell-tale sign of real trouble will be when the FED injects its latest bubble rot cure and the market patient doesn't spring to life but just grunts and rolls over.
Regards,
Douglas
