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S&P H&S Neckline Broken - Breakdown or Bear Trap?


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#11 Geomean

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Posted 20 May 2016 - 08:03 AM

Since the US stock indices declined below the 23.6 fib retrace of the Feb-Apr swing, per DeMark  his TD PropulsionTM indicator is now applicable, which means that if the indices move above 23.6% of the drop from the Apr top, there's sufficient upthrust to achieve at least the 41.4% exhaustion area. (Note these are all sacred number ratios, per Larry Pesavento. )

 

Some of the cash indices achieved that 23.6 threshhold yesterday and the futures did overnight.  

 

Since we are in a bearish overall phase, it's doubtful that this upthrust will move much beyond the minimum target area, but trend exhaustion indicators will  give a better read as that approaches/occurs.


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#12 Douglas

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Posted 20 May 2016 - 10:28 AM

Clearly the market didn't study for this H&S neckline test and is failing badly.  With SPY trading back above the neckline, the nod so far goes to the bear trap call, but I think I'll wait till the end of trading Monday to fold up and pack away the bear tent. 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#13 Geomean

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Posted 20 May 2016 - 12:11 PM

The Elliott, Hurst, & and DeMark work product I study suggest that the next swing down breaks the H&S neckline.


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#14 K Wave

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Posted 20 May 2016 - 12:54 PM

GS lagging badly today thus far...a close under 155 could be first sign something wrong with bull case here...


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