13 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

The most widely watched head and shoulders neckline in recent memory on the S&P has been broken. A debate has raged whether such an obvious event is a bear trap or if it portends a serious turn down right in the sell-in-May-and-go-away window.  Thank you FED open mouth committee for pushing it over the edge today. 

 

My head says it's a trap, but my dark heart hopes it hits nothing but air on the way down since my system is in cash and looking for a bargain.  Since hope is a really poor trading strategy, I'll just let my system make the decision.  The next risk window is this coming Monday the 23rd so the first test if it's the real deal or not should come very soon. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Geomean]

My hourly charts set @ top of the hour settings just printed TDSEQ Buy signals and TD Combo Buy signals (ES, NQ,) , and TDSEQ sell Signals on TZA @ 10:30. Lots of those 13 swing signals on other stock index 60 min charts in last 5 trading hours.

[redfoliage2]

I see there is a high probability that the broken shoulder line will be back-tested as soon as tomorrow............

It's hard to say at this point if it's a trap or not.   Let's see how the back-test will be doing...........

Edited by redfoliage2, 19 May 2016 - 11:27 AM.

[Douglas]

A bounce back to test the neckline is to be expected.  The real action one way or the other will probably come just after that test is passed or failed.  Maybe when it comes to FED rate hikes the axiom should be sell the rumour and buy the news.  Lately FOMC bark has definitely been worse than the FED bite.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Shaggies_View]

My take is that it will be 'fake' break. Key level for me 2020-25 level.

Can also see a count on 5hr chart indicating that this move is down is done in the short term.

 

Shaggy

[OEXCHAOS]

[qqqqtrdr]

I look at my charts once a day....   Very High volume on NASDAQ compared to NYSE tilted the scales that today will be down....     For a continued downward movement I would expect oil to be lower as well as well as bearish signals for put/call ratios which we haven't seen.....  We are oversold in some cases, but cracks in breaking down started in earnest with my medium term signals ( yesterday ) and I feel it will likely continue for a couple additional days...    With that said, if oil falls, and put/call ratios become not as bullish the downswing could extend further....

 

Barry

[Ticker]

The trend is still down.  We have lower highs and lower lows on the daily.  The highs and lows have been dramatic over the past year.  I am partially short on the indexes at this time.  The 10 day P/C moving average is relatively high (bullish short term) and the P/C ratio spiked to 1.29 today.  The P/C ratios are high but not yet at extremes.  Seems like the market sentiment is quite bearish despite being relatively close to the highs which correlates to the SH buying discussed by Mark.  I would like to see one more down day to cover all the index shorts and be flat on the indexes.  If we rally from here I will look to add shorts back in at higher levels. 

 

Currently long GC (gold futures) and short CL (oil futures) as well. 

 

[Douglas]

The closing TRIN was 0.72 according to stockcharts.com, and SPY rose just about to the neck line of the H&S as predicted above by redfoliage2.  The dip buyers were out in full force this afternoon which doesn't indicate much fear.  Now the test begins in earnest.  By Monday's close the verdict will probably be in unless they're using the Supreme Court on Wall Street too - four to four you know.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[opinionated]

All Timing leads to a June Top....   Right here Bears are beating the drums and most are expecting the big drop which almost always means it has been averted.  It WILL happen suddenly and in a constant slide... Above 2054 Bulls take the ball. All it takes is (1) fed speaker to say Well maybe not yet and this thing blasts off. 

 

Just My 2 cents