39 replies to this topic

[dasein]

my goodness - what a thread!

 

I would say be prepared to withstand a mean test on Monday - after the weekend when folks get back happy there could be a mean runup!

 

klh

 

wanted to send a personal congratulations on your wedding Salam - but I got this message

 

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Edited by dasein, 28 May 2016 - 08:52 AM.

[opinionated]

RUT daily basis,

 

peak in 3 days, low in 14 days, absolute tear up starting about June 16

 

we'll see with another week if the weekly abides and it probably will be

 

able to reset a cycle low with a drop from 4 to 14 days.

 

I will be absolutely levered up if it looks this way dropping in a bit at mid June.

I thought you were MEGA bearish going into June...  Biggest position ever...  A crash window in my stock cycles is in June, it is possible dollar is up if stocks are crashing but unlikely, by end of month. In 401k I have been building up Grizzley short fund and will do more by end of month, Now your thinking a tear UP june 16?  Head spinning... Did Blu jack your account?


 

Edited by opinionated, 28 May 2016 - 05:09 PM.

[salam]

I've cleared my inbox K.

Alexnewbee; I've snugged my stop on half my position to just above 2100. Expectation for a reaction down off the 2098 resistance area was dampened with the bullish close on the highs Friday.

Dasein, we may consolidate 2085-2112 area till the expected fed rate rise in June.

Thanks for your kind wishes :-)

[AChartist]

yes, but if a good decline starts then will look for a turn in mid june.

 

the daily and weekly will be lined up for a decline starting in a couple days and it could be a mini crash, but develops look like it will get truncated again and turn up,

 

this is new.

 

I am saying if it declines to mid June I will switch long again to the late July. To prepare for the decline I will do some selling and hedging 

 

in the next day or two. I will take off the grizzley fund in mid June if this occurs, I dont have too much in Grizzley yet just 2%, I will not add more this time for this decline because

 

of the short term nature of this decline and the 401k trading fees less than 90 days.

 

I will have to delay that for the next high that should be late July. 

 

What has changed is a strong ramp in RUT daily after a pullback and development of some supporting cycles in RUT weekly that may truncate the next decline, and DOW log quarterly closing back above downtrend.

 

 

 

 

RUT daily basis,

 

peak in 3 days, low in 14 days, absolute tear up starting about June 16

 

we'll see with another week if the weekly abides and it probably will be

 

able to reset a cycle low with a drop from 4 to 14 days.

 

I will be absolutely levered up if it looks this way dropping in a bit at mid June.

I thought you were MEGA bearish going into June...  Biggest position ever...  A crash window in my stock cycles is in June, it is possible dollar is up if stocks are crashing but unlikely, by end of month. In 401k I have been building up Grizzley short fund and will do more by end of month, Now your thinking a tear UP june 16?  Head spinning... Did Blu jack your account?


 

 

[AChartist]

since it is basically the currency that is failing, 1/2 size food containers, federal tax and terror monopoly hyperinflation in medical, federali de-education, consumer interest rates,

 

state and local income tax receipts down 8%, etc etc, doesnt bode well for the currency debt derivatives, bonds (detroit, chicago, peurto rico).

 

$15 per never slave depopulation, lets see a $35k once and done robot arm capital expenditure or three min wage payroll tax shift workers with random arbitrary political statute liabilities.

 

 

the disney entrained ignorant have made themselves too unattractive as employees.

 

 

the stocks may become the liquid currency. So what can you do with stocks as alternate currency besides keeping the account out of collapsing zombie debt.

 

Take them out of broke-rage in specie and put them in the sock drawer. 

 

sell covered calls for income, buy puts for insurance. It might be the lower risk liquidity for this failure mode.

 

We do see 1/2 the number of companies listed and trading on NYSE, plus stock buybacks removing supply.

 

We do see alot of stocks get hosed rotationally in the declines. Can that be offset with hedges, with gold, but basically

 

keeping the stock. In the last decline my 401k was up a little each down day, with a tiny gold fund allocation, my mistake it

 

was not a bigger allocation yet.

 

So if all the experts that hate stocks at worse fundamentals than 2009 low are wrong so far, these can be some of the

 

mechanisms. All these experts can be right about disaster collapse, but the collapse is not in stocks.

 

 

I agree with Armstrong on the mechanisms that leave stocks standing, but I dont agree with him on the dollar because we already know the dollar only buys

 

1/2 size food container. 

 

I do think there can be one bigger longer decline around election and into 2017, maybe because "trump is not schooled in the allusions of the status quo".

 

And maybe starting with a late July high but not getting under way until around or after election.

 

 

We'll see how well I trade this have been doing ok so far interperpreting the volatility in the cycles. I am not sure a volatility hedge will work this seems to be

 

their new financial engineering tool. 

 

 

I'm saying for now if a sharp drop occurs in the 1st half of June the cycles look like it will snap back to save the DOW line on close.

Edited by AChartist, 30 May 2016 - 08:44 AM.

[salam]

Position update:

Short average improved after yesterday's close to 2096;stop 2112. Tech squeezing with the generals retreating. Bildeberg factor makes my short feel safer. For the Bulls; at best a another Doji distribution day; at worst a solid red bar to retest 2072 on break of 2085 critical support for this swing up.

As always, trade safe

[AChartist]

If I had to interpret short term cycles it looks like a mini crash wave Jun 2-3, up, down to June 16.

 

If that type of fast dedline occurs I may close the volatilty hedges early on friday. I am just suspicious from these

 

cycles that it turns back up around June 16 and the look of the cycles is the first leg down is the worst of it.

 

I sold some covered calls until June 17.

[SemiBizz]

Might want to consider raising that stop to 2114 close...

 

As you know these things like to trade and test old volume events.

 

Right here the SPX is in a 2090.32 - 2113.92 range from 3/20/2015 OPEX

 

A day of blowout volumes

[salam]

Thanks for the headsup Semi

 

I've banked 10 points beer money from yesterdays close and covered my Position short @2086 area cash premarket (stop on long at 2083)

 

My trading platform allows me to trade both directions without incurring additional margin.

 

Crude made a nice reaction move down off resistance yesterday where I got a fill and closed at market close for a buck profit :-)

[SemiBizz]

Today's another F'ed Day...

 

Beige Book 2PM

 

They are in the market.

 

A powerful Monthly gap down is a prize that the F'eds cannot afford to hand to the bears here...
 

Edited by SemiBizz, 01 June 2016 - 08:49 AM.