*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".
"Timer Digest" has "The Ord Oracle" ranked #3 for the three-month time frame for the S&P ending 6/21.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (5/20/04) at 1089.18. Stop hit on (7/8/04) at 1111 for gain of 2%.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Sold SPX (5/27/04) at 1121.26 for a profit of 2.19%. Long SPX on 5/12 at 1097.26.
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What to expect now: (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com) current graph of the "S&P 400 mid cap" is provided. There is not a lot to add that we have not said before on our previous commentaries in that we still expect the S&P 400 mid cap index to test the May lows near the 550 range and that area should find support. We expect that the 550 level should produce an intermediate term bullish signal at that level. To confirm this bullish setup, we will be watching for the NYSE McClellan Summation index to turn back up. If you remember back in mid May the McClellan Oscillator hit a minus 366 and is equivalent to a "selling climax". We expect the S&P 500 hit a minor new low around the 1060 level with the McClellan Oscillator to hit a higher low then the mid May low. This buy setup should happen fairly quickly, probably within the next 30 days.
Nasdaq Composite:
We have included a graph of the Nasdaq (courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com) also. On the graph we pointed out the high in January 04 as being higher and had more volume then the previous major swing high of January 02. When a market breaks above a swing high on higher volume it confirms the uptrend and implies at some point the market will go back and at least test if not break that previous high. Therefore the Nasdaq on the bigger time frames is in a bull mode. You can see on the graph of the Nasdaq as it pulled back from the January high, volume gradually contracted. This condition is typical of consolidation patterns. We are coming up with a potential target low on the Nasdaq in the 1800 to 1825 ranges. The next low on the Nasdaq should coincide with the next bottom in the S&P.
GOLD Market:
The May 10 low on the XAU appears to have marked a major bottom at the 77 level. There could be a test of the 77 level but the bigger time frames suggest that does not need to happen. But whether a test of the 77 level is accomplished or not the consolidation phase from the January high is ending. The next rally phase up (rally phase should last for several months) should be the strongest one we have seen to date.
Long BGO at an average of 3.06. BGO tested the May low yesterday at the 2.14 level. If BGO closes above 2.14 this coming Friday, it will generate a buy signal on the daily, weekly and monthly time frames and will end the consolidation phase that has been going on since January. If BGO closes above 2.14 on Friday, we may add to our position. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ trigged a long-term buy signal in May. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. NXG also triggered a long-term buy signal in May. Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. If GSS closes above 3.85 on this Friday, it will generate a long-term buy signal on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. We may add to our position in GSS on Friday if it closes above 3.85. If that materializes, we will send out a special intraday report. Long PMU at average 1.12 and the PMO have turned up. Support on PMU comes in at .58 and bounce off that support and implies a bottom was seen in this issue.
The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows has occurred. Today's close came in at -123 and keeping the Summation index trending down.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .41. This indicator is neutral.
“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 5.63. This indicator is bullish.
Conclusion: Target on S&P near the 1060 level for a potential bottom.
Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish but still neutral. May get longer term buy signal near 1060 on S&P.
Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com
Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.
Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.
In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.
Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.
His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.
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