40 replies to this topic

[Iblayz]

In my opinion, if you are short. I understand the lure of shorting. We just saw it a few days ago. You can make boatloads of money in a very short time when you get it right.......as opposed to a steady grind up when you are long. But, and I am trying to simply pay attention to what the market may be saying, we have been hovering in the upper range for months on end. Every markdown has been reversed and we have come right back up here. In December, we were here with horrible internals. Now it is a very different story. I have been on the wrong end of several awful short trades over the years when I stubbornly refused to accept the obvious. I understand the pain of watching an account crumble before my very eyes. There is very REAL risk here of a move to 2293 in the SPX and you don't have to be a genius to see where I get that possible target. We all have seen the market make a new high and reverse and I am not ruling that out. In fact, I am not ready to even make a prediction that we DO GO to 2293 but again, it is a very real target. It is my opinion that, if we do take out the highs and maintain the close, there is the VERY REAL possibility of a quick and powerful move UP afterward. Just be careful and alert, and watch for the fake-out if the e-wavers allow this to morph into a 3 up that subdivides into five waves itself. That would mean another move down before we continue up. Be alert because this could easily extend into early September (1st) and even further. And don't get your head wrapped up in ALL of the REASONS that we should go down. Watch the market because neither you nor I can tell it what it MUST do.

I edit I will say this. The one BIG fly in the ointment is upside volume. But, what if we are 75 points higher from here when that gives the go-ahead. Caution is the order of the day.

Edited by Iblayz, 08 July 2016 - 09:09 AM.

[NAV]

If you are a long term investor, you should remain in cash until we close above SPX 2120 on a monthly basis. Otherwise you are playing with fire.Until then the monthly trend is down IMO and is not a investor friendly market. I sound like a broken record on this.

 

If you are a trader, most timeframes are on a buy. We need to get down below 2089 before you can start thinking of a short.

 

If you are a mean reversion player, you could short here with a STOP below ATH.

 

All depends on your timeframe and how you manage your STOPS and trade.

 

If we get a monthly close above 2120, then yes we open the door to a lot of higher targets like 2300, 2400, 2500. Otherwise your targets are nothing more than a technical number at this point, without the monthly tail-wind on your side. 

 

Those who have a itch to buy and hold on the long side should be looking at Silver/Gold, rather than stocks at this point.

Edited by NAV, 08 July 2016 - 09:28 AM.

[fwsnkjv]

Thanks NAV.  My best guess is that many of us who usually lurk here are IT and long term investors.

 

Getting trader perspectives is still interesting to us, and that is why I listen.

 

 

Your comments on the overall market as well as individual group strength are appreciated & I always look forward to them.

[dasein]

a monthly close? that is 4 weeks away!

[NAV]

a monthly close? that is 4 weeks away!

 

If you cannot wait for 3 weeks, you are not a long term investor by definition. 

[Iblayz]

Late yesterday a moving van knocked down ALL service lines just outside our neighborhood so we had no phone, no TV, and no Internet last evening. Does no good to have underground lines in the subdivision when that happens. Lost it all at the office over an hour ago. AT&T is laying fiber in the complex....maybe they cut Comcast's lines. Thank goodness for phones. I have sell orders in just below my target price via the phone interface....not because I'm bearish here....just because I don't want to be stuck if they sell it.

[fib_1618]

From last Sunday's Weekly Breadth Data review:

 

"So with the BETS moving back to a "Buy" signal this week with a +70 reading, we're back to being aggressive buyers in the equity markets. One of the little short term problems we have, however, is that we haven't seen the kind of leadership action in the small caps and secondary markets that we usually see when a major price rally is about to get underway. Because of this, we might see a day or two of back and fill just after the Monday holiday before we start seeing a better attempt to break above pattern resistance(s) and into new high territory for many of the major market indices here in the United States. In any event, as long as market internals continue to make higher cumulative highs, it's far better to continue to follow this friendly path of least resistance, while using any pullbacks as accumulation points until proven to the contrary."

 

For what it's worth...the BETS increased to a  +80 on Thursday.

 

Fib

[diogenes227]

Sometimes, especially on trending days like today, I get the feeling this market is going to go parabolic like 1999, killing every short, sucking in every sideline dollar, and soaring to heights totally nonsensical (although we're probably at that level already), and then crash from there with so much ferocity that 1932 will look like a single blip on some stock-history sonar, and the bonds... uh, don't even want to think about what happens when that biggest of all bubbles bursts...

 

Oh, well, just a feeling, and as we all know feelings are usually not worth diddly....

 

 

 

[Iblayz]

BANG! Got the print at 2:20 pm. Watched it live on my phone. Over and out till I get my Internet back.

[fib_1618]

Sometimes, especially on trending days like today, I get the feeling this market is going to go parabolic like 1999, killing every short, sucking in every sideline dollar, and soaring to heights totally nonsensical (although we're probably at that level already), and then crash from there with so much ferocity that 1932 will look like a single blip on some stock-history sonar, and the bonds... uh, don't even want to think about what happens when that biggest of all bubbles bursts...

 

Oh, well, just a feeling, and as we all know feelings are usually not worth diddly....

 

Well, on breakout days like today, it might be better to allow others to worry about things like this and just ride the wave as far as it will take you.

 

With your own personal experience in working with such tools as the McClellan's, you will have more than ample time to prepare for any scenarios that you've outlined here.

 

BTW...the 1 year platform pattern in which the market is just now breaking out of measures to around 2600 on the SPX give or take 50 points.

 

Fib