6 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

Here's the daily chart of $NDX.  Note the perfect .128 expansion from the 11/15 high and Gartly 222.  $Compx retested the 2000 top and barely exceeeded it.  This kind of signal generally indicates that we are in an area of trend exhaustion.  Stocks worldwide could begin to roll over now and over the next few weeks.  Some of the indices have more work to the upside IMHO, and in this case this may signal a top in a small wave 3 of 5 of the final leg up on this run..

 

ATB

Geo

 

 

[andr99]

if you know, is there any software providing the De Mark signals ?

[Geomean]

It's available through Bloomberg and DeMark Prime currently but very expensive.  Tom developed and sold free standing software for other platforms some time ago.   I bought it years ago when I was subscribing to his scanning service.  Think or Swim on TD Ameritrade has a free version of what they call the "Sequencer", but it does not have any of the qualifiers and filters that Tom developed, such as 'intersection" and "recycle".  Those are important in order to avoid a signal in stongly trending markets..

[andr99]

out of one hundred signals, how many are right and how many wrong ? I could try it as a filter for my own trading signals in order to refine them.......if it is the case

Edited by andr99, 16 August 2016 - 12:14 PM.

[dasein]

Geo - thanks for posting these heads up on TDM - agree the recycle and triggers are extremely important for using it as a signal or not. it is a setup otherwise/

 

Im pretty sure Thompson Reuters had it and

 

i thought Genesis had it but they may have had an argument....

Edited by dasein, 16 August 2016 - 01:33 PM.

[Geomean]

out of one hundred signals, how many are right and how many wrong ? I could try it as a filter for my own trading signals in order to refine them.......if it is the case

If one defines "right or wrong" as some kind of inflection within 10  bars, I'd say it's highly accurate.  But it works best if one has an understanding of which Elliot wave and which degree it is signalling complete and where a logical reversal target is and the next downside/upside target.

. 

For example, I got a 13 on the ESU16 hourly chart @ 7 am yesterday @2184 and it was 5 bars before the top @ 2190.75 near the target I had of @ 2191.75 and nine bars before the price really flipped over and closed below the closes of the prior 4 bars. 

 

The hourly ES chart currently awaits five hourly closing bars lower than the close two bars prior and either bar 12 or 13 of the red countdown bars below the close of red countdown bar 8 (which was 2175.25) before a hourly sequential ES buy signal, if it completes,  I would expect it to complete between 2176 and the 138.2 price extension of the first wave down or about 2172.75 or the 1.618 price extension @ 2170.50.  The TD Combo 13 buy, a faster signal,  is two bars closing below the close of two bars prior and also below the prior price lows away from printing. Either or both could signal some kind of wave exhaustion.

 

After that buy signal I expect a final top more toward the end of the month between 2193.50 and 2196 1.38 extension or 2201 the 161.80 extension with a subsequent sequential sell signal in the ES but leave open the possiblity of it hitting 2265, especially if this decline is deeper.

 

So the main caveat is that this sub minute degree wave 4 might be complex or the minute degree wave 4 already tentatively projected in the chart won't be done @ 2170-2175.  It's been so choppy for so long that counting this is difficult.

 

With the lunar eclipse on 8/17 after the close, per Norm Winski's research the chances are historically 75% of the time a lunar eclipse is followed within a few days of an average decline of 1.5%.  So a bounce beginning overnight on a low as projected and a wave up to close on the 17th back near the last high would be consistent with a EWT lower channel target of about 2160-2164 being attacked and a 1.5% decline to complete wave 4 before the final high more toward the end of August.  Ironically, a deep Wave 4 occurs, this could result in a substantial final bounce per the action/reaction guideline if yesterday's ESU16 high of 2190.75 is taken out after a drop to such levels.

Edited by Geomean, 16 August 2016 - 04:11 PM.

[Geomean]

Geo - thanks for posting these heads up on TDM - agree the recycle and triggers are extremely important for using it as a signal or not. it is a setup otherwise/

 

Im pretty sure Thompson Reuters had it and

 

i thought Genesis had it but they may have had an argument....

TR did have it for a while, but TD switched to Bloomberg.  I can't remember which platforms had his software that he sold to individual users.  Now he limits access to users who pay a monthly fee for the software together with the other costs of the platforms mentioned.