4 replies to this topic

[gannman]

I was thinking it would pull back to about 38 but not anymore I think the bottom is in and we head a lot higher fwiw.

[MaryAM]

Its hard to say.  Supply and demand appears to be stable - it should hover between 45-50 a barrel with a few slight ups and downs around that area.  Unless the dollar starts to tank big time - then all bets are off unless of course other major currencies fall in line with the dollar and we have a race to the top or a race to the bottom on the value of the dollar - and the value of good debt vs debt we can flush.   In my opinion there are valid scenarios arguing for either currency scenario to occur.  My bet is on a stronger dollar - much stronger - because a whole lot of debt is going to die and go to money heaven and is no longer in play.  Negative interest rates in the US.   Banks will start to hold currency only rather than pay another bank to hold their money.   If you have cash you will be able to buy more than you can on credit - if credit is even accepted.  I'm seeing a deflationary depression when this period in our, very short by historical terms,  investment cycle history is over. (Average is 35-40 years).  But, its better than an inflationary depression - as those always cause the overthrow of the  government - and usually with bloodshed.  It still can't hurt to stock up on ammunition.     

[tsharp]

Crude seems to be implying it wants to move higher, at least in the IT... I noted weeks back that there is a potential RH&S formation setting up with a target up in the low 70s/bbl, it is still playing out, but I suspect there will be some pause in price, now that a few TLs are coming into play.  

 

First there is the DTL which the price has just about hit, then there is the neckline of the RH&S, which is just above that, then finally. there is the latent TL on the indicator, and finally another DTL and the zero line on the indicator chart also, not to mention the few fib retracement levels that will act as both magnets and resistance, once there... I don't see 70s for crude on the near-term horizon, but if all plays out, perhaps over the winter months... and as always... time will tell.

 

Link to crude weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/uuyma9owp/

 

[gannman]

mary right now the dollar index is solidly below its 50 dma i think it is going lower fwiw

 

tsharp i agree with you i think we are going into the 70's on oil fwiw over time

[MaryAM]

Gann I agree and disagree . The money multiplier is at historic lows which is telling me a very high dollar. If any of us knew what the future held, I doubt we would be telling anyone here. We all learn from each other here - one day we may all find the secrets.