I spoke of potential bottom for SLV & GLD last week with the Full Moon on 8/18 expecting a couple of days of settling weakness after that (we didn't get a big down move on SPY at the lunar ecllpse per Winski). However, SLV has broken horizontal support as well as the 50 DMA today at 18.34. SLV has been leading (as has miners) closing at 17.97. This is an opportunity to get down to the 72 DMA at 17.5. If we do sell off this strongly, my guess is we get down to 17, where horizontal support exists before rallying into later Sept. There is likely continued weakness until Wed so the possibility exists for SLV to close at 17 or 16.5. IF we get down there I want to be a buyer and reverse my shorts.
I say Wed, because a Bernstein seasonal buy exists for SPX by buying close of 8/24 and selling close of 8/29, so I give that date as probable bottom short term for both market and GLD/SLV. I think it's possible we get the real low for this cycle in GLD/SLV early (next couple of days) and a higher low at the traditional high of the New Moon. I am thinking we are reversing the high/lows for this cycle, due to the weakness in SLV, especially, if it gets down to 17.5 tomorrow, rallies and then gaps down to the 17 area or lower over the next couple of days.
The other reason is there are several GLD & SLV seasonal buy signals that start between 9/2 & 9/6 (where we "should" have the sell of the New Moon) and which end the seasonal strength period between 9/22 & 9/24. These signals are in conflict with the New/Full Moon cycle, so I am anticipating the reversal and keeping an eye out, if I am wrong and we keep with the cycles by rallying tomorrow without a significant gap down.
Edited by thoughtpwr, 22 August 2016 - 05:00 PM.
