6 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Right everything is too hunky dory and markets have become too efficient for traders to capture anything. Bring on some chaos !

 

Brexit, Greece meltdown, Debt cliff, Bird flu, Raise Interest rates rise, Cut interest rates,  Deutcshe bank meltdown or whatever it is - for God's sake bring some chaos and uncertainty into the market. Bring some fear of God ! Otherwise these suckers are going to cut each other's throat in a 20 point range over and over again. The Uber bullish and perma bearish crowd on this board making high pitched noises is always a good indicator of market move being over and the market at it's efficient peak. Bring some uncertainty and send them back hiding in their caves.

Edited by NAV, 22 August 2016 - 11:51 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Well, there are still lots of signals... consider the character that always shows up just before the top, knows the top is coming but continues to post ridiculous bullish propositions using selected interpretation of statistics...

 

Meanwhile the market continues SIDEWAYS/UP. Limited upside as every rally gets sold.... Cash is a nice position here...

 

Can't wait for the fear though, it's a lagging indicator, have to look for other markers... by the time the fear in the public develops, the trades are already on...and the market down 10%.

 

and the more of those posts we see, the closer the top is... and those posts will continue all the way down too...  Some people can't be wrong so they point to the market and say it's wrong...

 

SOXX made a new 15 year high today, but the banks are still pathetic...

 

SOXX is your best friend here, another great turn indicator in this time frame...

[dasein]

what do you think of the ISIL buyout?

[SemiBizz]

what do you think of the ISIL buyout?

 

Well

 

This pretty well sums it up from almost 3 years ago K...

 

Posted 17 December 2013 - 09:33 AM

 

Due to the extreme costs of manufacturing now in the new state of the art, there are only three companies playing, the monsters - Intel, Samsung, Taiwan Semi. It takes $10-15B now to build one of these state of the art fab facilities. Those 3 companies now dominate the market for equipment, buying 60% of the World's Chipmaking equipment. There are lots of risks associated now with chip development with individual production mask sets for these new fabs running upwards of $100M. Nevertheless, those three companies can dominate the landscape for the higher end production. For the rest of the approximately 200 companies, there is going to be a war for "everything else" so we expect to see a big consolidation as the chip business goes from the 200 or so companies today, down to say... 20 in the next 10 years. I've been watching this now for a long time wondering when this might start, and LSI Logic more or less rings the starting bell. I'd be very careful short this group. We may be looking at a bunch of Merger Monday's ahead in this sector - I have some upside targets in mind for the SOX I think are reasonable. The wild card of course is the overall equity market - I'm just saying - right now there are better things to do than short a potential feeding frenzy.

 

[SemiBizz]

I would just add that all the good stuff is already gone here...

 

ALTR, BRCM, FSL...

 

ISIL is low tech, and Renesas isn't ARM, so they have to do something...

 

FSL went to NXPI, so they had to have an answer to that noise...

 

It's pathetic.

 

This planet is hopelessly over capacity in everything...

 

None of these acquisitions are facing future markets, it's automotive for the most part and that design is up for grabs with the self-driving cars...

Edited by SemiBizz, 23 August 2016 - 10:31 AM.

[dasein]

nice read down nightmare lane Semi - NAV I agree with you on Win 8 but now I got a new laptop and was forced to get Win 10 - it is only half as good as Win7 and they have made it so you cannot get rid of their stuff - the Xbox for example could be removed but they heard people were removing it and changed power shell so you cannot get rid of anything - Monopoly power!

[NAV]

Microsoft has some of the brightest engineers. But they have a big leadership issue. Starting from Steve Balmer who completely ruined the company and now Nadella who will completely drive it to the ground. No vision, always behind the curve, trying to mimic what Google and Apple does. And typical Microsoft ethos - always some rough edges in their products and they never bother to fix them.

 

Having said that, Windows 10 is much better than the Windows 8 crap, but still not a polished product. Windows 7 and Windows XP were much better, no doubt. But the appeal of Windows 10 is in the fact that, if you write an app for Universal Windows Platform (UWP), it would run on all Windows 10 devices - desktop, tablet and phone. That's a glimmer of hope for the demoralized Windows developers, which could bring in more apps to the market place. We'll see.

 

As for monopoly, market will take care of that in the long run.