Jump to content



Photo

The Long Term View


  • Please log in to reply
13 replies to this topic

#11 Rich C

Rich C

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 46 posts

Posted 19 April 2017 - 08:09 AM

The Atlanta Fed has reduced its GDPNow forecast for Q1 to .5%, down from 1.2%.  The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate in March to .9% as expected, but rates on longer term treasuries have come back down to Nov. levels.  Do the bond mavens see something wrong with the economy, or is there a flight to safety motivated by the French election and tension in N. Korea?  The 12-month trailing GAAP PE on the S&P 500 fell to 23.7 this month (still overvalued), on the back of the 3% correction we experienced.   76% of S&P companies are beating earnings estimates with 8% reporting, and earnings are projected to rise by 9% vs. a year ago, which should limit this correction.  The S&P continues to run in the bull market uptrend channel it has been in the last few years.

 

The bull market continues, IMO.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.


#12 johngeorge

johngeorge

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 4,418 posts

Posted 24 April 2017 - 12:47 PM

Rich

 

I too think the bull continues as long as the S & P remains in the up channel as shown on the chart in your blog. Could well be we have a long way to go yet on the upside.   By the way, I really like the blog.  Lots of great information.  Thank you for sharing. flowers.gif

 

Best to you. smile.png


Peace
johngeorge

#13 Rich C

Rich C

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 46 posts

Posted 24 April 2017 - 04:15 PM

Rich

 

I too think the bull continues as long as the S & P remains in the up channel as shown on the chart in your blog. Could well be we have a long way to go yet on the upside.   By the way, I really like the blog.  Lots of great information.  Thank you for sharing. flowers.gif

 

Best to you. smile.png

Thanks for the feedback, and I'm glad you find the blog to provide some value!


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.


#14 Rich C

Rich C

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 46 posts

Posted 17 May 2017 - 12:43 PM

Q1 earnings have come in powerfully, projected now to end 13.6% higher than a year ago, that's impressive!  The counterbalance is that the Trump rally took stock prices up so that the 12 month trailing GAAP (as reported) PE barely budged at 23.7, moderately overvalued.  GDP for Q1 came in a +.7%, measly, but all Q1's are measly, so no big surprise.  Interest rates have been stable and low, a plus.  Globally, economies look to be growing slowly, with no active major political hot spots.  N. Korea simmers, but we will give the Chinese some time to see if they can moderate the situation.  Bottom line, the bull market continues.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.