8 replies to this topic

[gannman]

if you look at the top on aug 15 it looks like since then we did an abc correction ending friday imo

 

that i would count as a wave iv of this wave that started june 27 

 

so that would mean a wave 5 ahead 

 

we will see just interesting to try and figure this out we do live in interesting times ha ha

[gannman]

and when yellen had that meeting with obama and biden what do you think they talked about . where they vacation at ha ha 

 

uh i dont think so ha ha it was like janet you know if trump gets elected you are gone right ha ha  something like that ha ha

[Geomean]

It's pretty easy to count 5 waves up in the SPX daily chart w/ wave iv completing @ Aug 1 & wave v on Aug 15. The idea of placing wave iii at Aug 15 and an ending diagonal or of making any kind of 5 wave structure up from a Aug 17 possible wave iv low, at least in my pea brain, pretty much died with yesterday's plunge and invalidation of having wave iv end on Aug 17.
http://www.stockchar...r=1472297703830 Moving a wave iv to yesterday's close and keeping iii at the 8/15 high likewise does not account for the 5 wave structure on the daily which has wave equality, extension & alternation as one would expect.

Yesterday's outside down close prints the classic popgun pattern. As recently noted by EWI the Popgun is a two-bar pattern composed of an outside bar preceded by an inside bar. So a logical alternative count seems, perhaps, to be that we are in either a wave iii or c thrust to the downside after an extremely long and narrow range structure. Hurst, DeMark, & Ermanometry analyses support that view.

http://www.elliottwa...to-Trade-Setups

That's at least something to consider. ( I acted on that potential count when I went short ESZ yesterday within a point or two of the high and can now move my stop to breakeven and wait and see if the 40 week cycle peak is behind us and if it is going to chart a high level consolidation or a more vigorous downward wave structure until the election.)

[gannman]

geo thanks for the thoughts always enjoy hearing what you have to say. we will see this week what happens . i am not short or long this market i am just watching fwiw

[Geomean]

Glad to share GM. I don't keep my own counts except on short term charts (which - together with plotting fib price extensions/retracements- consumes most trading days as I trade 7-10 markets) but closely review how EWT experts are counting their mains and alternates every few days & look forward to seeing how Friday's drop affects their counts this weekend. Some had iv? @ 8/17's low theorizing one more push up to complete an ending contracting diagonal, but clearly marked where that count was invalidated. The failure to see a completing 5 wave structure up from iv? and 5 waves down visible in the 30 min chart on the next ES leg down suggested a close eye out for a 3 wave structure and the .618 retrace area in the next leg up after Yellen's speech, which is exactly how it printed & where it pivoted in the ES yesterday. Besides that 5 wave down structure (which doesn't fit a corrective in an impulsive wave 5 or an ending diagonal in which each leg must be an a-b-c), the other thing that caught my eye was that the high close in SPX was on the 15th &, while the SPX inched out a slightly higher high on 8/23, it closed below the close on 8/15. DeMark advocates the use of closes on dailies for his counting as those are harder for the market makers & specialists to manipulate in a stop run and reflect a whole days actions/trading including news which most often is scheduled for mornings. I see the logic in weighing market action that way. Fascinating stuff. You pls keep sharing too!!

[tsharp]

I'm by no means an EW expert, but at this time do see Friday's market action as a part of an EDT in a c-wave of wave-ii, so the larger count off the Feb lows is a wave-i,ii, wave-i,ii that may complete early next week... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/c2omzq0rd/

 

[tsharp]

And this is what the larger picture with an upward projection for wave-iii in P5 appears to me...

 

Link to SPX weekly wave count:  https://postimg.org/image/mblpjae6x/

 

Edited by tsharp, 27 August 2016 - 12:10 PM.

[pedro]

if you look at the top on aug 15 it looks like since then we did an abc correction ending friday imo

 

that i would count as a wave iv of this wave that started june 27 

 

so that would mean a wave 5 ahead 

 

 

 

I'm on board with your finale, but I get there differently.

I also don't see abc iv as having ended yet but we are close.

 

I have, up from Feb lows (larger IV), the 2 was the leadup and culmination of Brexit.

3 up post Brexit ended at the recent highs of 8/16.

Now in 4 underway including a marginal new high.

5 up at some point into final high, at the end of Sept.

[chem]

Reached target zone for the final 3rd out of the '09 low but arrived a bit earlier than would be expected of the corresponding 1st wave which took 7 months to complete followed by a higher high 2-3 months later as part of an expanded flat. But some breadth readings are long in the tooth and in need of a reset correction these include the amount of time NYSI and its constituent 39 ema have been above their zero lines are reaching historical readings.

 

http://stockcharts.c...r=1472315346903