I will say this in defense of Fib and in reference to his being (incorrectly) labeled a permabull. In my opinion (and for the life of me I really don't understand it), there are way too many posters on public message boards who NEVER seem to have a bullish thought (and this in spite of the market spending around 67% of its time advancing). Yes, Fib gets more active when the market has advanced and keeps advancing. But (and again just my opinion), it seems like everybody and his brother are determined to call market tops and label "short opportunities of a lifetime" way too early. Fib pops up and points out that the internals are not ready to roll over just yet and by doing so tries to help these people in spite of themselves. From what I have seen of his posts, he daytrades quite a bit (and considers that a strength) but.......that part of him is reserved for his subscribers and his chatroom. From a trend perspective, he is virtually NEVER on the wrong side of the market because his work is stellar. And he is adept at recognizing when the market is showing signs of turning.......as referenced by his chatroom warning (via log post here) a few days ago and also pre-brexit. He is NOT needed when the market is falling dramatically because then the permabears are not only VERY active but they are getting to enjoy the pleasure of being right for at least a short time in the grand scheme of things. There are a LOT of people here (active and inactive) that could benefit from paying attention to his tidbits and it is my bet that there are many who, long ago, figured out what I am posting about him and recognize the value of his contribution to a FREE board. I, for one, would be FAR worse off had I not read so many of his posts over the years.
This is not about Fib or you or anyone else on this board. To make money in markets, it requires something more than just philosophy, something more than just a model to analyze the markets, something more than just identifying trend, analyzing volume, gauging sentiment etc. Yes, they are all fine and makes for some entertaining read. But it ain't going to make you a penny ! I guarantee you that.
Trading is a cold hard game of identifying high odds entry points, pre-determining risk on the trade a.k.a STOP and having a method to exit profitably. When i came on this board more than 13 years back, there was very little literature either here or elsewhere on the internet as to how to identify the trifecta of trading Entry/Stop/Exit. I struggled for many years on trying to understand how to enter, exit and place stops. You are not going to get them from professional vendors of services (which i have subscribed to one too many). You have to really interact with professional traders to understand these aspects of the game.
There is a big difference between a professional vendor and a professional trader. Vendors are all about analyzing the health of markets and determining the direction of the markets. All they discuss is about market direction, trends, targets, health of markets etc, rarely about how to make money. You talk to any professional trader. They talk only about - "where was your entry", "Where's your STOP" and "where's your exit or trailing STOP", "How many points did you make this month?", "What was your max drawdown this year", "How's your equity curve" etc. I interact with many professional traders who do this for a living. All we discuss is trend change, entry, exit and stop. Of course money management is important to contain your long term risk and drawdowns. That's a different subject altogether.
Nothing has changed in the internet world as regards to trading. Most don't have clue on how to trade the markets. Most professional traders would not reveal their systems and the edge they have by the virtue of their trading system. That is precisely the reason you rarely find any good information on trading systems anywhere on the internet or any good books related to them. So most amateurs become fodder for services, searching for that elusive knowledge, which nobody is willing to share. Just think about it for a moment. Will you share the goose that lays the golden eggs ?
The only way to make money is to think independently, spend a lot of time studying the markets, building trading systems, backtesting, forward testing in real markets, make money, lose money. It's a long drawn process even for those who are very committed to make it in this tough business. It's not 95% traders who lose money. It's more like 99%. One of my friend runs a brokerage, who says, 99% of his clients lose money and most amateurs traders who enter this business have a lifespan of less than 6 months. If anybody thinks, they can get a profitable trading system for $29.99 a month, they have a lot to learn and they will learn the hard way. Go to collective2.com. It's a ghost town of failed systems and ruined subscribers.
To become a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader i.e how to make money, not getting obsessed with analyzing market direction. Again all that matters - ENTRY, EXIT and STOP.
I am not saying my posts are anymore useful than others as i do not share my methodology, which i don't intend to. But my message to anybody who wants to become a trader is to start thinking like a trader - ENTRY/EXIT/STOP. The only things that matter.
