7 replies to this topic

[jjc]

I think there is a real possibility for a short lived sell off here measured in minutes but for some vehicles it could bring us to the low seen on the 9th. I don't have any signals indicating so nor am I positioning in anyway to catch it. What I am doing is having some cash available to buy (limit buys in place) if it occurs.

 

I think there is just enough skittishness in the market to get people/machines to do something stupid that minutes later will be reversed. I will point out here if you are trading US markets money will flow into them fleeing risk areas of the globe. 

[Charvo]

Implied volatility for options have increased today.  Folks are buying protection ahead of the Fed meeting.  I've seen this happen before, and it always results in an unwinding of the protection once the statement comes out regardless of what is in it.  VXX has dropped a lot after the Fed meetings conclude.  However, I've got VXX being in more of a intermediate term bullish phase here rather than the beating it was taking after February.

[jjc]

I don't follow the VXX. I just took a look at it and can't make any sense of it's behavior compared to the vix. I don't believe we will see the low level of volatility seen at the beginning sept for some time to come. International money has to slosh around and if for that reason only I believe we will see higher vol in all markets. 

[Charvo]

I don't follow the VXX. I just took a look at it and can't make any sense of it's behavior compared to the vix. I don't believe we will see the low level of volatility seen at the beginning sept for some time to come. International money has to slosh around and if for that reason only I believe we will see higher vol in all markets. 

 

I think VXX is a great proxy for real market fear.  It is highly dependent on contango and where the front month VIX future is compared to the 2nd month.  Right now the November VIX is at a 5% premium to October.  This is very, very significant it was sky high through bullish phase of the market from February to August.  I think if the VXX declines to a new low after the Fed meeting with the contango staying below 10%, it is a big bear signal for the market.  This is what I am watching.

[Rich C]

Last week I was partially short, switched Monday to partially long.  It's a Fed move, can't see them raising now in front of the election, and the market usually likes that.  Then by 10/10 we'll be in earnings season, and with a little improvement in GDP, hoping for some good earnings.  I'm buying the OUSA ETF for the first time, quality dividend and growth companies.

[K Wave]

It's all about NAZ 5240/QQQ 117 now...

 

Let's see if those levels hold after "da words".....

[qqqqtrdr]

Looking at all my charts, the market could go either way here....   We are Neutral on all accounts...  Long term, the market continues to be overbought...

 

Barry

[jjc]

 

I don't follow the VXX. I just took a look at it and can't make any sense of it's behavior compared to the vix. I don't believe we will see the low level of volatility seen at the beginning sept for some time to come. International money has to slosh around and if for that reason only I believe we will see higher vol in all markets. 

 

I think VXX is a great proxy for real market fear.  It is highly dependent on contango and where the front month VIX future is compared to the 2nd month.  Right now the November VIX is at a 5% premium to October.  This is very, very significant it was sky high through bullish phase of the market from February to August.  I think if the VXX declines to a new low after the Fed meeting with the contango staying below 10%, it is a big bear signal for the market.  This is what I am watching.

 

Thanks C.

 

I understand the product and its limitation. The peaks and troughs are of different relative values on the daily level. I have a difficult time explaining that away with contango. Head scratcher for me.