18 replies to this topic

[andr99]

 

OK, where are the ''true experts'' ? When the market is uncertain what you can here from them is the ''loudest silence''. Loud because it speaks better than one thousand words.

When the folks need an input....it's a desert of comments from such ''true experts''.......an old story going on and on over the time. Then when the market goes up again......the usual post of the kind ''I had said it''......or more or less ''I was, per my charts, bullish''. I had said what ? I had said nothing. In any case given that I' m the only and happy ''untrue expert'' I'm going to post here now what the market should do in my opinion. The spx shouldn' t correct much more than it actually did (maybe 2150 at most) and then should break above 2200 for the last high and top to reach in Nov, possibly 2250-2300. I have said it. The site on the other hand is called ''fearless forecasters'', not ''the day after explaining'' as some ''true experts'' seem to think. If I' m wrong....at least I have said what I think about the market action.

this time I have to disagree with you Andr. I think we go down about 150, may be some more, points on S&P. 

After that we rally, probably. And corrently I think rally could last into next year spring, where will be the final top.

We will see shortly

 

 

Hi alex, to me it's good when people disagree because to disagree people must show what they think and you (and I) never retreat when it comes to posting market projections. So thanks for your point, appreciated as usual.

[Rogerdodger]

"Average returns for the coming week have been negative by all measures."

Mike Burk

[da_cheif]

Gen McCauliff had one word for all of the above eh

[NAV]

OK, where are the ''true experts'' ? When the market is uncertain what you can here from them is the ''loudest silence''. Loud because it speaks better than one thousand words.

When the folks need an input....it's a desert of comments from such ''true experts''.......an old story going on and on over the time. Then when the market goes up again......the usual post of the kind ''I had said it''......or more or less ''I was, per my charts, bullish''. I had said what ? I had said nothing. In any case given that I' m the only and happy ''untrue expert'' I'm going to post here now what the market should do in my opinion. The spx shouldn' t correct much more than it actually did (maybe 2150 at most) and then should break above 2200 for the last high and top to reach in Nov, possibly 2250-2300. I have said it. The site on the other hand is called ''fearless forecasters'', not ''the day after explaining'' as some ''true experts'' seem to think. If I' m wrong....at least I have said what I think about the market action.

 

20 years back when i was a novice in trading, i used to think the Gurus had some unique insight into the markets. When the markets are making a directional move, making news highs or new lows, you don't need no stinking Gurus. It's at the time of uncertainty you need them. When i used to eagerly open the newsletter to know what the Guru was thinking it used to be a bunch of blah blah with tons of caveats and if-then-but analysis thrown in. It took many many years of reading that kind of bullsh^t to understand that these so called Gurus knew no better than a average joe when it comes to forecasting the market moves. 

 

It took me a few more years to really understand that money is made at turns or compressions where/when there is a lot of confusion and uncertainty. And as you noted above, the Gurus are sorely absent during those compressions/turns. That's to be expected. Nobody wants to get caught on the wrong side and get their impeccable image tarnished. That's what separates the traders from Gurus. The former make their moves during the turns and compressions, when their is little directional certainty and chances of going wrong is high. And of course the traders go wrong a few times trying to catch the turn. That's how money is made. Getting a few small stops hit and catching a move larger than the sum of those losses.

 

In fact today i am more certain that my position is going to make money when i see a lot of confusion and uncertainty on the message boards and blogosphere. I almost feel it's a necessary condition to make money. I love uncertainty !

Edited by NAV, 25 September 2016 - 08:48 PM.

[brucekeller]

 

OK, where are the ''true experts'' ? When the market is uncertain what you can here from them is the ''loudest silence''. Loud because it speaks better than one thousand words.

When the folks need an input....it's a desert of comments from such ''true experts''.......an old story going on and on over the time. Then when the market goes up again......the usual post of the kind ''I had said it''......or more or less ''I was, per my charts, bullish''. I had said what ? I had said nothing. In any case given that I' m the only and happy ''untrue expert'' I'm going to post here now what the market should do in my opinion. The spx shouldn' t correct much more than it actually did (maybe 2150 at most) and then should break above 2200 for the last high and top to reach in Nov, possibly 2250-2300. I have said it. The site on the other hand is called ''fearless forecasters'', not ''the day after explaining'' as some ''true experts'' seem to think. If I' m wrong....at least I have said what I think about the market action.

 

20 years back when i was a novice in trading, i used to think the Gurus had some unique insight into the markets. When the markets are making a directional move, making news highs or new lows, you don't need no stinking Gurus. It's at the time of uncertainty you need them. When i used to eagerly open the newsletter to know what the Guru was thinking it used to be a bunch of blah blah with tons of caveats and if-then-but analysis thrown in. It took many many years of reading that kind of bullsh^t to understand that these so called Gurus knew no better than a average joe when it comes to forecasting the market moves. 

 

It took me a few more years to really understand that money is made at turns or compressions where/when there is a lot of confusion and uncertainty. And as you noted above, the Gurus are sorely absent during those compressions/turns. That's to be expected. Nobody wants to get caught on the wrong side and get their impeccable image tarnished. That's what separates the traders from Gurus. The former make their moves during the turns and compressions, when their is little directional certainty and chances of going wrong is high. And of course the traders go wrong a few times trying to catch the turn. That's how money is made. Getting a few small stops hit and catching a move larger than the sum of those losses.

 

In fact today i am more certain that my position is going to make money when i see a lot of confusion and uncertainty on the message boards and blogosphere. I almost feel it's a necessary condition to make money. I love uncertainty !

 

The best part about trading when you know there is uncertainty is a good straddle, at least for options. I still have trouble doing them, but darn if I haven't regretted it almost every time I haven't. It's almost too easy. 

[dasein]

BK - you buy straddles? expensive, no?

[K Wave]

BK - you buy straddles? expensive, no?

not when VIX is at 11 handle.....

[prognosticator]

That was a great post NAV!

 

So here we are sitting on the precipice, where do we go from here? Down, down and down with the occasional bounce along the way. Most have been caught off guard. The setup is perfect.

[pisces]

That was a great post NAV!

 

So here we are sitting on the precipice, where do we go from here? Down, down and down with the occasional bounce along the way. Most have been caught off guard. The setup is perfect.

 

the most likely course here is a retest or a try to retest the All Time High and then have a bigger decline.but all in the context of the ongoing Bull Market,which has some time to run.

never forget this is a bearish biased Board,always has been,i know because i was part of it.Amen...