36 replies to this topic

[iloli way]

Wow, ....later please

[MDurkin]

 

 

 

I don't know you guys, this ES/SPX market has been very predictable and easy to trade between lines since September 11, documented line by line, step by step, day by day here:

 

Now What? Nothing but blue sky ?!

 

 

Post your trades like Nav...

 

 

What is the reason to require others to the same way of posting trades?

 

What do you learn when people posting their trades, if you don't get to understand their systems and be able to benefit from using it yourself? You are not following their trades blindly are you?

 

My lines/patterns posted in real time way ahead today's result. Everyone saw it can and I do follow it until it runs its course (pattern/line) from Day One. So the junctures of price/line developed in time IS my trade, granted I can't possibly trade all of them but major ones. I am sharing my systems and trades at the same time, I certainly won't be stirred by you guys into trying to make me another NAV. Why not every one of you asked me to post like NAV post like me? eh?

 

Ent, don't get me wrong, what I said was only pertaining to the time span and pattern/line of this thread Now What?

 

I respect NAV and sure he understood my point is just that: sharing a different way of riding this market with different approach, that's all.

 

 

Hi iloli way

 

You ask some  valid questions, I will give you my take, others way disagree and that's one useful purpose of a discussion board.

Beore I give my 2cents, let me say I think your lines are a great system,  i'm just pointing out trading them is not as simple, and thus I would not say its 'easy or predictable' in a conversation

which was about trading, a thread where NAV is posting his trades. The market always finds a way to make the trading part hard

 

Sorry this is bit long, just trying to be clear:

* wherever I say 'trade' I could say 'signal' provided signal = entry, exit, stop.

 

# What is the reason to require others to the same way of posting trades?

 

You certainly aren't required, but if anyone say its easy and predictable, then you can rest assured other traders will want to see the evidence,

and also you have an business opportunity because anyone who can show trading success can run a subscription if they wish. Lots of services now measure trading systems and traders, they ALL use trades as the measure..

 

Why do trading system performane only trades matter to determine the usefulness of any signal/system.?

Because Drawing lines, showing charts is always open to interpretation and ambiguity. I try to differentiate that as 'analysis', what

goes into a trading setup, but the trade is the ultimate purpose and measure.  For me to assess a system, I need to see ( and I apply this

to all testing of my own systems ) :

 

1. Trades defined as Entry price, Exit price  and a stop ( without a stop we are gambling not trading as  a business).

2. A  statistically signifcant sequence, I frequently can have 10+ winners in  row, then a bunch of losers , means little. You really need to see a full year to gain confidence.

3. Some Short and  some long - if its only one direction, its really just one bet - that might seem unfair but its mathematically and logically true. For example,

if you always go long in bull market, you likely have alot of winners, but come bear market discover system didn't work. 

 

Big question is MECHANICAL or Human Decision. 

If your system is mechanical - it generates entry, exit, stop but if human decision, you can decide 'I will exit here, I will stop myself out, I wish NOT take this entry'.

A mechanical system is easy to asses, but when human is making decisions - we are now measuring 'trading skill'. Maybe your signals were good, but your emotions

meant you exited, or didn't take trade etc.

 

So I would not require someone to actually TAKE the trade, just post them - some of us are not good trading skill ..i'm still working on that.

 

#What do you learn when people posting their trades, if you don't get to understand their systems and be able to benefit from using it yourself? You are not following their trades blindly are you?

Novice traders get to understand some of what I explained above - what disciplined trading is as opposed to the nonsense espoused on most trading sites which is closer to gambling.

Experience traders will see if a new method has utility, and can learn from that.

 

#My lines/patterns posted in real time way ahead today's result. Everyone saw it can and I do follow it until it runs its course (pattern/line) from Day One. So the junctures of price/line developed in time IS my trade, granted I can't possibly trade all of them but major ones. I am sharing my systems and trades at the same time, I certainly won't be stirred by you guys into trying to make me another NAV. Why not every one of you asked me to post like NAV post like me? eh?

 

Thank you for posting your posting analysis, and trading setups, I know the time and efforts that is involved.

No  one is trying to make you post trades if you don't want it, I and many others just won't be able to assess the usefulness from these charts. They make perfect sense to you,

because you developed the idea, but that is problem of communication. I 'm pretty good with fractals, I can show you charts and think it clear as day, but we all see different patterns.

 

The biggest reason analysis/setups ( is useful) but as  NOT as useful as trades, is because it ignores STOP's and EXIT's.

I can show you many systems that on paper look great, but when actually trading them, you get stopped out and actually, figuring where to place stops is what

I focus on more than entries. Like wise where to exit with a profit ..exiting to early even when you are 'right.

-> If stops are too wide - big losses , if too tight - many stops outs even when u are 'right'.

 

I have traded using similar lines,  so let me say some problems i've experienced trading my own line:.

 - first thing is, you need 3 points to draw it a channel ...up down up, or down up down ...so you cannot use them on initial 3 points of a formation such as the triangle on ur chart.

 - next is, price often FALLS JUST SHORT of LINE TOUCH - so you miss the entry

 - Others it pokes through the line, then reverses  - this is of course where stops come in, how big?

-  if you decide say 5 pt is close enough to a line to avoid falling short of line problem, but then it goes on to touch line, and then through the line 5pt - now you need double sized stop.

 - there are often mutliple lines in close proximity - and that complicates decisions.

 

 - A big one is CASH or FUTURES because:

  CASH - often the line resolution (reversing at line or going through ) occurs with a GAP - so, now it become about predicting the overnight gap.

 ( a support or resistance line is what some of us call a 'bifuraction' a point at which price can move a large distance either way - like a ball balancing on a point)

-> Odds are best that a line holds ( support) ...but when you finally are wrong, it will be with a large gap and loss.

 

  FUTURES - the problem is overnight they run stops alot....so its hard to have tight stops, and wide stops on futures means alot more risk.

 

 

There are more issues but i'm rambling on - point is, posting trades or signal makes is clear, in black and white, what is being said and avoids

the ambiguity to some readers.  It not something anyone has to do, I don't do it, because I find trading hard enough without worrying about updating

my real time stops to message boards! especially since my timeframe is shorter .. also because literally everytime  anyone does it the market Gods seem

to smite them by producing a market that doesn't suit the system. Maybe for fun I will do it in near future to see just how quickly the market Gods screw me LOL

 

 

best

Mark 

 

Well said!

[Len]

indeed . Its a great post. 

[NAV]

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded" - Yogi Berra

 

If Yogi Berra was alive today, he probably would have said "Nobody posts their trades anymore. It's too easy" LOL !

 

Jokes apart, trading is very concrete - you enter and you exit and you either make a profit or loss. A chart is open to million interpretations. Charts do not make a profit or a loss. Unless a chart is marked with clear buy/sell signals.

[SemiBizz]

Look, one size does not fit all in trading.  We all have different objectives and styles.

 

For example, some of us have accumulated wealth and want to protect it.

 

Others are willing to gamble, maybe with money they didn't earn themselves (think brokers).

 

Trades that may be appropriate for one individual given their set of circumstances may not be appropriate for others.

 

Trading is an individual sport, not a team effort.

 

At the end of the day it's you and your accounts.

 

If NAV wants to post his trades that's fine.

 

The name of this group is Fearless Forecasters, If Mark wants to open a forum devoted to trades only that's fine.

 

Otherwise we're here to share ideas based on intelligence...

 

Demeaning the motives of someone who is willing to share his ideas and insights without regard to his personal actions is very unproductive.

[EntropyModel]

Look, one size does not fit all in trading.  We all have different objectives and styles.

 

For example, some of us have accumulated wealth and want to protect it.

 

Others are willing to gamble, maybe with money they didn't earn themselves (think brokers).

 

Trades that may be appropriate for one individual given their set of circumstances may not be appropriate for others.

 

Trading is an individual sport, not a team effort.

 

At the end of the day it's you and your accounts.

 

If NAV wants to post his trades that's fine.

 

The name of this group is Fearless Forecasters, If Mark wants to open a forum devoted to trades only that's fine.

 

Otherwise we're here to share ideas based on intelligence...

 

Demeaning the motives of someone who is willing to share his ideas and insights without regard to his personal actions is very unproductive.

 

Hi Semi

I don't believe anyone's 'motives were demeaned', unless I missed it?

I explicitly thanked the poster for his time posting his work and said it had value, right here:

 

"Thank you for posting your posting analysis, and trading setups, I know the time and efforts that is involved.

No  one is trying to make you post trades if you don't want i"

 

If I claim market is easy to predict then I 100% expect to be asked to back that up with hard evidence given statistically 95%+ traders lose their account, all of them believed in their method. 

Obviously hard evidence would be trading account records, or a large number of live trades.

 

Please note, this was a thread NAV created to post his trades, so trading was the topic of the thread.

Posting your trades exposes you, there is no ambiguity.  I'm not sure of the value/insight/sharing of saying on such a thread that 'trading has been

predictable and easy', I think to even the playing field you need to show your trades as well, even then, what does saying that contribute ?

 

best

Mark

Edited by Entropy2.0, 15 October 2016 - 06:39 PM.

[MDurkin]

 

Look, one size does not fit all in trading.  We all have different objectives and styles.

 

For example, some of us have accumulated wealth and want to protect it.

 

Others are willing to gamble, maybe with money they didn't earn themselves (think brokers).

 

Trades that may be appropriate for one individual given their set of circumstances may not be appropriate for others.

 

Trading is an individual sport, not a team effort.

 

At the end of the day it's you and your accounts.

 

If NAV wants to post his trades that's fine.

 

The name of this group is Fearless Forecasters, If Mark wants to open a forum devoted to trades only that's fine.

 

Otherwise we're here to share ideas based on intelligence...

 

Demeaning the motives of someone who is willing to share his ideas and insights without regard to his personal actions is very unproductive.

 

Hi Semi

I don't believe anyone's 'motives were demeaned', unless I missed it?

I explicitly thanked the poster for his time posting his work and said it had value, right here:

 

"Thank you for posting your posting analysis, and trading setups, I know the time and efforts that is involved.

No  one is trying to make you post trades if you don't want i"

 

If I claim market is easy to predict then I 100% expect to be asked to back that up with hard evidence given statistically 95%+ traders lose their account, all of them believed in their method. 

Obviously hard evidence would be trading account records, or a large number of live trades.

 

Please note, this was a thread NAV created to post his trades, so trading was the topic of the thread.

Posting your trades exposes you, there is no ambiguity.  I'm not sure of the value/insight/sharing of saying on such a thread that 'trading has been

predictable and easy', I think to even the playing field you need to show your trades as well, even then, what does saying that contribute ?

 

best

Mark

 

That's right!

Edited by MDurkin, 15 October 2016 - 07:33 PM.

[NAV]

Look, one size does not fit all in trading.  We all have different objectives and styles.

 

For example, some of us have accumulated wealth and want to protect it.

 

Others are willing to gamble, maybe with money they didn't earn themselves (think brokers).

 

Trades that may be appropriate for one individual given their set of circumstances may not be appropriate for others.

 

Trading is an individual sport, not a team effort.

 

At the end of the day it's you and your accounts.

 

If NAV wants to post his trades that's fine.

 

The name of this group is Fearless Forecasters, If Mark wants to open a forum devoted to trades only that's fine.

 

Otherwise we're here to share ideas based on intelligence...

 

Demeaning the motives of someone who is willing to share his ideas and insights without regard to his personal actions is very unproductive.

 

 

I agree with all you said, except the last sentence. There was no demeaning of anybody on this thread. It was a constructive exchange. Rebuttal of certain statements is not  demeaning. Can't always agree with everything, everyone says. Disagreement is healthy. Attacking is not !

Edited by NAV, 15 October 2016 - 11:40 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Wow, ....later please

 

I think that says it all.  You got all over Iloli just because he expressed his opinion...

[MDurkin]

 

Wow, ....later please

 

I think that says it all.  You got all over Iloli just because he expressed his opinion...

 

And we expressed ours... enough said.